Teatime recently did a great job, gathering lots of detailed information together to pinpoint a fair value for the new Premier/Bridgeport combination:
https://www.mineninvestor.de/
Via the website of Bridgeport you can find now an updated presentation and factsheet to start your own due diligence:
https://www.bridgeportventures.net/docs/2012-10-17_Premier_Royalty_Corporation.pdf
https://www.bridgeportventures.net/docs/Premier_Factsheet_Oct2012.pdf
I think the under valuation of the new combination compared to some of its peers, is caused by the fact that the deal is kind of complicated. Instead of spinning off the royalty portfolio into a new vehicle, Premier choose Bridgeport Ventures to take over that portfolio. As a result, it takes some time to fully understand what happens here and to correctly calculate fair values of the combination and the shares.
Once the deal is fully settled and the consolidation of 4:1 shares took place, there will be roughly 47.7 million shares, divided as follows:
Old Bridgeport shareholders 12.6 million shares
Premier 19.0 million shares
Aberdeen 7.5 million shares
Convertible holders 8.2 million
Thunder Creek 0.4 million
There are 28.8 million old warrants outstanding, while there will be issued 12.5 million new warrants. The old warrants will be consolidated whereas 4 warrants will give the holder the right to purchase one share at $ 2.00 till October 10, 2014 and the 12.5 million new warrant will give the holder the right to purchase one share at $ 2.00 till November 30, 2016. In total thus 19.7 million extra shares will eventually be issued.
The current pre consolidated Bridgeport share price includes 0.375 of such new warrant. I tried to determine how much the value of the warrant is and thus how much remains for the share price using:
https://www.hoadley.net/options/optiongraphs.aspx?
https://www.hoadley.net/options/binomialtree.aspx?
According to the Black & Scholes calculation (via trial and error) I came to a warrant price of $ 0.66 and a share price of $ 2.00 (as each share will be granted 0.375 of a new warrant, the sum of both then is $ 2.25 which equals 4 times the current share price).The Cox, Ross & Rubenstein calculation shows only slightly different prices.
The old warrants currently have a price of $ 0.25, which is extremely expensive compared to the just calculated price of a new warrant at $ 0.66. Don't forget that the old warrant has a expiration date of October 10, 2014 and the new warrant November 30, 2016 AND to get one share, 4 old warrants are needed instead of a 1:1 conversion for the new warrant. Based on the same calculations from Black & Scholes and Cox, Ross & Rubenstein, these old warrants are worth as little as 12 cents.
Having said that, there will be 47.7 million shares at approximately $ 2.00, thus a marketcap of $ 95 million. There will be 28.8 million old warrants which probably will be revaluated once the deal is done. Thirdly there will be 12.5 million new warrants, which probably will settle at a price between $ 0.60 and $ 0.70.
Premier/Bridgeport will generate $ 8 million cash for the years 2013 and 2014, giving it a value of only 12 times its cashflow, which is pretty low compared to its peers, which are all priced around 20-25 times their cash flows. The NAV (5%) is $ 68 million, add $ 12 million cash in the bank and the sum is $ 80 million already. The premium, which is pretty standard for royalty firms, is thus only $ 15 million, or 20%, while the old assets of Bridgeport are not even accounted for.