Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Average price $3.50

[Traderx11]

Anyone realistically think we get there in the next year?

[zenith9]

According to my proprietary modelling and analysis the price should play out as follows: WTI $50       BTE $1.06 CAD WTI $60       BTE $1.91 CAD WTI $70       BTE $2.75 CAD WTI $75+     BTE $3+ CAD So yes, we need WTI to be well over $75 to get to your break-even. Gulf countries need their soverign wealth funds to be

[Maxmoe]

Being a bit of a math geek I question your model. The operating leverage from 50 to 60 to 70 should not be a curve with a declining slope. Ie the rate of change per $10 change in WTI should grow exponentially, not decline per your model. Free cash flow grows exponentially and the NAV of the oil in the ground grows exponentially. Without the benefit of being able to pick apart the model directly, I

[zenith9]

I have several skews for 'weak hand' factors and investor sentiment generators. Historical price action is also considered. This scales back the exponential aspect significantly.

[Maxmoe]

Hmmm.  Maybe your model is skewed up (pun intended) because you are mixing math with psychology? An investment sentiment generator sounds an awful lot like a gut feel. Try the model with math only. Or run a back test for 2004-2014 period. You will pick up the mini depression but also the raging bull market. Your human factors will always bewilder the algorithm .

[Trader124]

it's too high.  I would say more at 1.5$ if oil remain around 50$.   I can see above 2$ only if oil move above 60$ which I doubt it will. but anyways it's all guessing no one knows

[2020oilgamble]

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[Willy2k]

No it wont .

[Sexp1stol]

It all really depends on the oil price if there is some international tension that leads to oil above 70$ we will be above 3.5 as well. If oil ever hits 100$ we will be retired. :D

[zenith9]

Agreed. You can see how oil is spiking today in advance of FDA approval of the vaccine. Honestly, I see no reason why WTI won't go to 50 after approval. The light at the end of the tunnel is almost here. $1 Baytex is coming. Tensions with Iran are certainly ramping up. Maybe $100 oil isn't far off :)

[Sexp1stol]

On top of that the world energy is 80%+ coming from fosil fuels and there is a major movement to reduce emissions so what is the main way to do that? To get rid of coal which is about half of that energy. Oil and gas will replace coal for a long time before we replace them with renewables. And nuclear is being removed as well. Germany is closing all of their nuclear plants and the rest of EU will

[ManitobaCanuck]

If Oil hits 100 , i effing make 5 million on my oil bets .Going to put all those profits in REITs and retire 

[zenith9]

Not commercial REITs though....... LOL

[ManitobaCanuck]

Lol, I bought a good chunk of Brookfield at 14$(almost 200k) , 10% payout is juicy and its upto 19$ now. 20k of cash yearly is good for some retirement . But thinking of buying somehting like VRE ETF. Oil investing is stressful ,too many ups n downs :)  

[Stalkhouse]

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[topdown99]

Come on Stalkhouse , where's your xmas spirit ? All factors considered , its been a pretty good couple of weeks so lets just "live and let live" . Pour yourself a drink and put Debbie Downer to sleep for the night