Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Free cash flow projections

[Unlucky13]

BTE made a 5 year plan based on $55 oil.  Not $60, you didn't even read the projections in the annualized plan properly.

BTE presentation from 2021
>$250m 2021
Assumptions
WTI $55
WCS $48
NYMEX - $2.80
FX - $0.80 

If you annualized current prices and the take original $250m and subtract you get the following net at $50 wti.
 

WTI $50 (65 million)
WCS $48 (subtract $32m)
NYMEX - $3.00 (subtract $ 12m)
FX - $0.80 (subtract $10m)

That leaves $150 million or so per annum.  That's 16 years to pay off the debt and $150 million per year is 35 cents per share in free cash flow.  At a 3 to 1 p/e that's a $1 stock!

How about you do the math Wolf and give us the whole picture and not just your interpretation of it.

$50 oil is not that far off and considering the company is valued at about 3 times free cash flow now 99 cents before $3 is still in play!

Everything you share is based on projected oil prices and if OPEC pumps out 500000 barrels a day more with an announcement oil is going back to the $60 range and probably back to the $50 range.  Oil has on averaged $65 plus for a few months so there are no guarantees.  

You have not given many reasons why oil will stay high or any insight into a possible drop.  That's flawed analysis.  I agree higher oil prices means a higher stock price but that hasn't happened yet and people are pricing in a oil price collapse here.

A 750000 increase in production tomorrow will send oil down $5 and we all know that.  Nothing short of a cut or freeze in production will keep the price up.

As you can see at $50 oil the stock is under a dollar and you haven't made for that scenario, that's alarming and short sighted.

I just don't see any scenario where OPEC doesn't open the floodgates.

An HOD buy might really pay off.  Best case scenario oil stays flat.

[TheCrow]

You should probably double check the presentation yourself... yes the 5 year plan uses 55$ but have a look at page 5 footnotes before you go off on somebody. Greater than 250 mil fcf is based on 60 for 2021. Also, wouldnt 150 mil fcf pay off the debt in 11 or 12 years and not 16? Maybe you should check math before going off on others. If not less, because as you pay down debt, interest expenses

[Unlucky13]

The 5 year plan was 200 million a year based on $55 oil.  $60 was 250 million.  Ballpark gauge.  I was ballparking the debt at around 2 billion but if it's more like 1.8 billion than yes 12 years or so to wipe out at $55 oil and not 15 plus.  I stand corrected but stand by my claim that Wolf is projecting only on lofty oil targets and not considering the mid point or lower

[Tommy007]

The oil price $55 may not be too aggressive projection based on the last ten years average closing price is $65.19 derived from https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart.