Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Debt trend updated- With Q3 contract days 87% complete

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Q3 is averaging over $71 with 12 contract days left. Even a drop to $65 it will hold $70 for Q3.

Using only $65 WTI for Q4 and 2022...management hits the debt target already in the 5 year plan end of 2022 that's on top of the option to start buying back these cheap shares Jan 2022..

With Clearwater having the ability to self fund as Ed mentioned this plan seems on track. 

If Q4 holds above $65....the numbers below get even better.

		Millions ($)
	Jun 30th Net Debt	$1,629
	Jul payment (1H FCF)	$125
2021 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( 87% complete @ $70 WTI)	$140
2021 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$115
	2021 Ending Net Debt	$1,249
2022 Debt payment	Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
2022 Debt payment	Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
2022 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
2022 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$60
	2022 Ending Net Debt	$1,009
2022 Share buyback	Q1 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$40
2022 Share buyback	Q2 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$40
2022 Share buyback	Q3 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$40
2022 Share buyback	Q4 FCF ( @ $65 WTI)	$40
	2022 Total Share buyback ($)	$240

[BayStreetWolfTO]

With these assumptions of only $65 oil....won't it be great for the company to buyback those shares being shorted! Buybacks will certainly make it tougher to cover. Looking forward to Q4 and 2022!

[perstrudent]

I like your numbers for debt, but I just dont see share buyback or dividend until Q2 or most likely start of Q3 2022. This is ok with me as gets debt down to very very conservative numbers. Clearwater could  be huge. Look at headwater projections of self funding growth anf half a billion fcf in next 5 years...these wells are remarkable and although super early BTE wells look even better. (we

[topdown99]

I would suggest buying back shares before initiating a dividend , the more shares that can be retired before , the more dividend/share will amp up . BTE can make massive strides over the next 12 months and that is where my focus is regarding this one . As Clearwater details are released and those barrels being unhedged , it should be rocket fuel for FCF and further strengthening of the balance