Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Battle plan-Share buyback assumption with only ***$60 oil***

[BayStreetWolfTO]

 

 

A "What IF" on Q4 @ $60 along with all of 2022 @ $60...remember in 2022 they are hedged in 2022 and get I believe $58 for oil if between $48 and $58...on the 3-way

 

My thoughts on a BTE battle plan (debt/share buyback) @ $60

		Millions ($)
-------------------------------	--------------------------------------------	-------------
	Jun 30th Net Debt	$1,629
	Jul payment (1H FCF)	$125
2021 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $70 WTI)	$120
2021 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $60 WTI)	$75
	2021 Ending Net Debt	$1,309
2022 Debt payment	Q1 FCF ( @ $60 WTI)	$38
2022 Debt payment	Q2 FCF ( @ $60 WTI)	$38
2022 Debt payment	Q3 FCF ( @ $60 WTI)	$38
2022 Debt payment	Q4 FCF ( @ $60 WTI)	$38
Target 1.0-1.2	2022 Ending Net Debt	$1,159
2022 Share buyback	Q1 FCF ( @ $60 WTI) 50%	$38
2022 Share buyback	Q2 FCF ( @ $55 WTI) 50%	$38
2022 Share buyback	Q3 FCF ( @ $60 WTI) 50%	$38
2022 Share buyback	Q4 FCF ( @ $60 WTI) 50%	$38
	2022 Total Share buyback ($)	$150

Hopefully that $150M could buyback a lot of shares IF oil was $60 throughout Q4 21 and all of 2022

[dandu1924]

But  the buyback share does not works to push up the share price all the time,  just looks BIR, they did buy back almost 1 million shares and the share price going down like crazy, so ???? any idea about the effect of the buyback???

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Exactly Dandu! This is why everyone is saying MEANINGFUL BUYBACKS. we are not talking 1 million shares....using 50% FCF we should be able to spend $150 MILION FREE CASH FLOW DOLLARS! IN 2022. With $150 million you are buying WAY more than 1 million shares....a 1 million share buyback is a joke...I want 10% or 56 MILLION SHARES bought back! Each year if possible 

[markymark1]

Is there is certain window in which BTE can buy back shares?  Can it not be throughout the year?  Why not buy 10 million shares now?  10 million shares in a few months, so on and so on. They can still pay down debt with FCF they are earning 

[Moemoney42]

They're only allowed to purchase so many shares per day based on the average volume.. I haven't researched to see what that volume is though.. maybe another poster here can provide that number as I'm new to the company as of todays purchase.. 

[inFactsWeTrust2]

Perhaps sections 2 and 3 will help answer your questions: https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/447 However, it's up to the company to decide when they start the buy, and not bullhorn the 'window'; otherwise, they'll end up paying extra.