Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Thursday Sep 30th - BTE end of day update

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Topics: 1. Current Day FCF, 2. Yearly FCF, 3. WTI Trend, 4. Current Quarter Contracts, 5. Shareholder Strategic Focus.

1. Thu Sep 30th - BTE banked another $1.55M+ FCF today

 

2. With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $75.03 & current pricing = $570+ million/year which is above the management plan. (EXCLUDING CLEARWATER)

 

3. WTI is final for Q3. We are now on the Q4 / November Contracts. Not including improved hedges or Clearwater see historical trend below

 

1. BTE Free Cash Flow Q1 = $70M avg WTI $52.09
2. BTE Free Cash Flow Q2 = $112M avg WTI $62.71
3. BTE Free Cash Flow Q3 = $TBD avg WTI $70.57
4. BTE Free Cash Flow Q4 = $TBD avg WTI $70.04 (so far)
5. Negative talk on $52 WTI is nonsense. At this rate they still brought in $70 Million for the quarter and this excludes Clearwater and improved hedges

 

4. Q4 contracts 46.2% complete. It's nice to see WTI hovering over $70.
    
5. Shareholder Strategic Focus
   1. To BTE management. Keep doing what you're doing!
      1. Focus on FCF ($570+ Million per year at these prices)
      2. Pay down debt (down to $1.4b this year wow!) Clear off the 2024 note on June 1st 2022 as soon as the agreement allows.
      3. Buyback cheap shares complete a SIB not a NCIB (the cheaper the better)
      4. Issue a dividend
      5. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.
      6. Preferably in that order and keep within 80-85k bpd
      7. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

 
With this you will find 100% support

Reference: https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2021/2021%20-%20September%20Presentation.pdf

[marquac]

I sometimes forget just how much money Baytex is pulling in every single day at these prices.  Fingers crossed that WTI stays above $70 through Q4.