Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Friday Oct 15th - BTE mid-day update

[BayStreetWolfTO]

1. Fri Oct 15th - BTE looking to bank another $1.95M+ FCF today

2. With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $82.20 & current pricing = $710+ million/year which is above the management plan. (Including a Clearwater estimate 100% unhedged!)

3. 14 Trading days before Q3 Results

4. Short interest 4%+ (increased Sept 15 through Sep 30th)
i. Short position Aug 31 - 22,186,348
ii. Short position Sep 15 - 22,380,069
iii. Short position Sep 30 - 23,046,469

 

5.
i. BTE Free Cash Flow Q1 = $70M avg WTI $52.09
ii. BTE Free Cash Flow Q2 = $112M avg WTI $62.71
iii. BTE Free Cash Flow Q3 = $TBD avg WTI $70.57
iv. BTE Free Cash Flow Q4 = $TBD avg WTI $72.32 (so far)

6. Q4 contracts 61.5% complete.

7. November contract settlement date in 5 days. Quickly moving to December contracts

Shareholder Strategic Focus. To BTE management. Keep doing what you're doing!

i. Focus on FCF
ii. Pay down debt (down to $1.4b this year wow!) Clear off the 2024 note on June 1st 2022 as soon as the agreement allows.
iii. Buyback cheap shares complete a SIB not a NCIB (the cheaper the better)
iv. Issue a dividend
v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.
vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 80-85k bpd
vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support

Reference:
https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2021/2021%20-%20October%20Presentation.pdf

[MooninPaPa]

Could you explain SIB and NCIB... I understand it has to do with buying back shares but that's the extent of my understanding. Thanks

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good afternoon Moon, policy link below but short summary NCIB they are limited to 2% per month 5% of OS or 10% of float....OR an SIB which allows you to take more...in the case of going private your would complete an SIB versus a slower NCIB. POLICY 5.6 NORMAL COURSE ISSUER BIDS https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/447 This Policy sets out the procedures and policies of the Exchange with respect to

[MooninPaPa]

Appreciate it. Thanks