Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Moon, NCIB, Buyback, Dividend & Debt

[BayStreetWolfTO]

No problem Moon, when I get bored I crunch numbers....this is what I have in my head as something that would be good to see....a good balance of debt, buyback and dividend for 2022.


If they adopt the 50/50 rule (50% shareholder returns as others are) 

Note this is using an assumption of < $70 oil.....

Higher oil you can buyback more or increase dividend or reduce detb further...I like a balanced approach...this will eliminate 6% of the float allow a $0.20/year dividend and get debt at the lowest point in their target

ALL with Oil BELOW $70

Month	% Month	Share Cancelled	SP$	FCF Buyback Amount	Dividend/Sh/Qtr	FCF Dividend Amount	Combined FCF Usage	FCF for Debt	Debt Balance
Jan	0.75%	4,245,000	$ 4.50	$ 19,102,500			$ 19,102,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,229,167,000
Feb	0.75%	4,245,000	$ 4.90	$ 20,800,500			$ 20,800,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,208,334,000
Mar	0.75%	4,245,000	$ 5.30	$ 22,498,500			$ 22,498,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,187,501,000
Apr	0.75%	4,245,000	$ 5.70	$ 24,196,500			$ 24,196,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,166,668,000
May	0.75%	4,245,000	$ 6.10	$ 25,894,500			$ 25,894,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,145,835,000
Jun	0.75%	4,245,000	$ 6.50	$ 27,592,500			$ 27,592,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,125,002,000
Jul	0.25%	1,415,000	$ 6.85	$ 9,692,750	$ 0.05	27,400,000	$ 37,092,750	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,104,169,000
Aug	0.25%	1,415,000	$ 7.20	$ 10,188,000			$ 10,188,000	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,083,336,000
Sep	0.25%	1,415,000	$ 7.50	$ 10,612,500			$ 10,612,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,062,503,000
Oct	0.25%	1,415,000	$ 7.80	$ 11,037,000	$ 0.05	27,400,000	$ 38,437,000	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,041,670,000
Nov	0.25%	1,415,000	$ 8.15	$ 11,532,250			$ 11,532,250	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,020,837,000
Dec	0.25%	1,415,000	$ 8.50	$ 12,027,500			$ 12,027,500	$ 20,833,000	$ 1,000,004,000
Year	6.00%	33,960,000		$ 205,175,000		54,800,000	$ 259,975,000	$ 259,975,000
							$ 519,950,000	Total 2022 FCF

[MooninPaPa]

As nice as a dividend would be, would it not be best to pay down all debt and buyback a healthy chunk of shares til the share price is representative of the company and then offer a dividend? I'll be honest the chart is intimidating; it has an aggressive uptrend since the beginning of the year. Can things truly keep projecting in the same aggressive pitch?

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Hi Moon, yes the spreadsheet can be overwhelming. It just shows they have lots of options. For simplicity the totals assume $519M Free Cash Flow for the year....so Oil at only $70 matches this spreadsheet Year totals at the bottom include  $ 205,175,000        (share buybacks) $ 54,800,000          ($0.20 per share yearly dividend) $ 259.575,000&

[masfortuna]

Well it was aggressively trending downwards for about 7 years so...