Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Friday Nov 5th - BTE midday update

[BayStreetWolfTO]

 

 

Topics: 1. Current Day FCF, 2. Yearly FCF, 3. WTI Trend, 4. Current Quarter Contracts, 5. Shareholder Strategic Focus.

1. Fri Nov 5th - BTE looking to bank another $1.85M+ FCF today and another $5.6+M weekend Friday-Sunday

2. With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $81.25 & current pricing = $680+ million/year which is above the management plan. (Including a Clearwater estimate 100% unhedged!)

3. WTI is final for Q3. We are now on the Q4 / December Contracts. Not including improved hedges or Clearwater see historical trend below;

i. BTE Free Cash Flow Q1 = $70M avg WTI $52.09
ii. BTE Free Cash Flow Q2 = $112M avg WTI $62.71
iii BTE Free Cash Flow Q3 = $101M avg WTI $70.57
iv. BTE Free Cash Flow Q4 = $TBD avg WTI $75.21 (so far)

4. Q4 contracts 84.6% complete.

5. Shareholder Strategic Focus. To BTE management. Keep doing what you're doing!

i. Focus on FCF!
ii. Pay down debt (down to $1.4b this year wow!) Clear off the 2024 note on June 1st 2022 as soon as the agreement allows.
iii. Buyback cheap shares complete a SIB not a NCIB (the cheaper the better)
iv. Issue a dividend
v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.
vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 80-85k bpd
vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support

Reference:
https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2021/2021%20-%20October%20Presentation.pdf

[EnergyWatcher55]

Nice summary. But BTE is a bloated beast. Whether its GIGANTIC share float of 565M shares or its black hole of debt, why spend so much time with this dog? Other oil plays are better. Good luck!

[Stockhudson]

does that mean you are leaving this board then