Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Baytex financial forecast 2022

[red2000]

Here are my Baytex forecast for 2022 ! (still very conservative number with a lot of upswing)
My main reason to do it, it's to evaluate the FCF and what they really can do with it in 2022.

Not included in the calculation below : Clearwater (much better netback) or any others prospect or partnership or production increase
Less financing and Unrealized fin deriv. (hedge now at 68$ instead of 52$) for 30 to 50M$
This method was use for the 1st 3 quarters of 2021, and it work (Error margin +/-1,5%)
Calculation include same metrics of Baytex for :
Netback at 61% of revenues.
AFF at 43% of Revenues and FCF very conservative at 22% of revenues, may reach easily 25% or more in 2022.

Base on 81,500 boe/d. Hedge price at 68$ and a WTI at 78$.
Revenues : 2,2B$ FCF : 540,2 M$
What they can do :
1st 6 months pay debt for 249,7 M$.
Next 6 months :
Buy back shares at 5,25$ for 28,2M out. Sh. = 148M$ (Very expensive) 
At this price better pay debt
Start paying a dividend of 0,05 per share quarterly == 564M out. Sh. X 0,05 X 2 Q = 56,4M$
Cash left : 39 M$.

Is it enough to reach 6 to 8$ per share in 2022 !!??

Others facts :
If the WTI reach for example 100$ for 6 months in 2022 this may added 150M$ in revenues and probably 30M$ in FCF.

But if it's in the full year 2023 with no hedge and 85,000 boe/d KABOUM over 3,2B in revenues !!!

Buyback shares may cost higher, but it will be easy to increase dividend to 0,10 per share per quarter !

And clear 100% of the debt !!!

As you can see this stock will fly a bit in 2022, at least 6 to 8$.

But 2023, back to 15$ +

Any comments or facts to add... !!??

Please do your DD, it's your money !!!

[JohnnyDoe]

thanks Red. Re the shares being expensive to buyback...truth is they may never be cheaper. If the macro environment holds and we go into 2023 with lower debt, a divvy program kicking in and oil anywhere close to what some analysts are predicting, bte (and all the other cdn mid caps) get really juicy really quickly

[JohnnyDoe]

[Maxmoe]

I think mgmt made it clear. Priority #1 is pay off debt. Banks can GFY. #2 is buy back stock and small divy. #3 is drill baby drill and/or buy cheap land.  They've got it right so I'm sitting back and will enjoy the show. Pass the popcorn.

[JohnnyDoe]

Sorry Red, having typing trouble today. the big issue for me in 2023 is going to be the hedge book. If we know oil is going to stay reasonably high, do you lock in a high floor or let it ride and hope prices go to the moon?

[red2000]

Hi JohnnyDoe  I saw an hedge price for 84$ on their dec presentation, but for a very low % of production. Not sure if the hedge may stay anyway, debt may fall under 800M$ in 2022 if WTI still climb over 80$.   If the WTI, hit 100$ all year in 2023, Baytex may reach 3,2B$ in revenues and around 1,000,000,000$ in FCF all that with only 85,000 boe/d !!! For me, It's 15$ + for share

[JohnnyDoe]

ya I saw that hedge. It's only 2000 barrels a day so if they don't add to that it's pretty much unhedgedit's tough to crystal ball it into 2023 if oil holds around 80. If bte hits 15, which I agree is possible, where does everyone else land? They're all looking at the same basic situation of massive fcf increases. I own cve, su, wcp, CPG, TVE, HWX, CJ. They're all going to