Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

m & a

[JohnnyDoe]

I've been reading lots of articles recently on m & a possibilities in the oil patch. Frankly this has me a bit nervous. I have two large caps. But I don't want any large caps swallowing up my mid caps over the next 18 months. You'll get a premium over say the last 30 trading days as is typical but that's undervaluing the shares.
I'm starting to lean heavily towards dividends as opposed to buybacks to have a more immediate impact on share price to ward off large cap suitors. Thoughts on that?

[topdown99]

If you don't mind me saying , you might be reading too many articles . M&A can be good or bad , each transaction is unique and is judged on its own merits . As far as the dividend/buyback debate goes , my advice is pick good companies and let the market come to you .

[JohnnyDoe]

I read a lot. In this space, I try to avoid the pom pom waving articles and stick to material written by the analyst crowd. And yes, there are credible people writing about consolidation in this sector. I think share prices on mid caps aren't at all reflective of their value and the big dogs are value hunting

[topdown99]

I couldn't agree more with that statement . Although I have had 2 companies bought out from under me in the past 2 years , I just reinvested and continued to work the wave . The glass is only half enpty if thats how you choose to interpret the situation .

[jleer42]

Agree with topdown99. There are many undervalued O&G options. If one gets bought out - hopefully at a premium - you have more money to invest in the ones not bought out.

[Stockhudson]

I have been here too long to be bought out   I know I have had a good run in last year   I want the big reward for sticking it out   we cerainly have nade a rebound but I want the big bucks now   sorry my greed is coming through   GLTA

[Wildfury]

If any of the Canadian household names in the oil patch are bought out, the rest will rise automatically as long as their valuations are not inflated and have decent production numbers & debt levels.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good evening JD, I have thought about this and for some companies it is a possibility especially in areas of mutual interest. Baytex also talked about possible neighboring acquisition if it made sense. That said my expectation is the deal would be completed at a premium and there are so many undervalued small and mid cap that you could redirect the windfall to those. The only question would be if

[JohnnyDoe]

appreciate the replies and the sentiment from the board to move the money elsewhere in the sector. That's the pure non emotional response. The right one two for that matter. I actually expect some consolidation in the Clearwater play. I have BTE , TVE and HWX in Clearwater and I expect to see some moves for more average in the play. If TVE or HWX gets bought, take your money and move along

[Maxmoe]

I get you JD. I was not happy and did not tender my little pony stock to CNQ when they swooped in and bought PONY for peanuts. True, you can find comparable names but it just happened "opportunistically " versus being bought out at the peak. Or even mid cycle. Buyout was 69 cents. Nva was about the same price then. Now $8. Pony today would easily be $5. A big Homer Simpson DOH!  

[Maxmoe]

I'm convinced bte has their priorities set perfectly. Nobody cares about a 5% dividend yield on a stock that moves that much in a day. Routinely. Not one stock survived the crash of oil stocks because of the dividend, and not one turned around, all by itself, because of the dividend. No, I think telling the banks to GFY and paying off debt should be priority number one. Number 2, as long as

[Antonyius]

Max got it bang on. I dunno why people keep bringing up a dividend when it should really only be deployed when a company has absolutely no idea what to do with their extra cash. If you want dividend you can easily buy a Suncor or cnrl.