Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Debt Target & Shareholder returns

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Just some perspective.

Back in Sept the Management team discussed "As we sit today we would be very focused on buying our shares back at some level in the first half of the year""

So where are we now?

When that comment was made oil was $70 so simple math

Debt Sep $1.564B
FCF Sep-Jun @ $70 = $365M
Debt Jun $1.200B (target reached & commencement of shareholder returns)

HOWEVER OIL HAS NOT BEEN $70 SEP-FEB

Impact of $80 oil (with unknown production change on Clearwater)

Debt Sep $1.564B
FCF Sep-Mar@ $80 = $365M
Debt Mar $1.200 (target reached & commencement of shareholder returns)


So the difference between $70 and $80 is the difference between June and March (not including Clearwater additional production which is being drilled at a good pace as you can see from my prior posts)

Who knows what we see Feb 24th...but it will be interesting.

All I know is there is LOTS of Clearwater activity so for me that is exciting!

[BayStreetWolfTO]

To simplify a $10 change in oil accelerates 3 months roughly

[Wildfury]

Yes BSW, great perspective with the numbers. In my opinion, the year end earnings results MUST include share buy-backs /dividends. The longs have waited LONG ENOUGH, there strategy seems sound but we must be rewarded for hanging in and for drinking the coolaid. If management keeps harping on paying down debt only this stock will get hit hard. Take the fuel out of the shorters hands. They are

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Hi Wildfury, I agree the strategy is sound and we have so far been rewarded in 2021 and continue to be in 2022.  The shorters will continue to take a hit in due time. Some of us aren't done adding to our positions at these levels. Agreed they are making good cash flow and debt is being chopped down. Nothing much has changed in the last 6 months (other than other companies have