Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Understand the markets are suffering but $88 WTI

[OnionKing]

I wonder what is happening and what it will take to get to $5?? $95 WTI

If WTI drops to $70 - will likely drop to $3.

Bays analysis is sound and Baytex is making a killing and good things coming, but the market is irrational clearly... disappointing

[dandu1924]

The most oil stock going down after the up, this is the play and often we are green at the end of the day.  I am  long  and patient.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Hi Onion, this is why I don't plaster share price and date targets as for me this is not rational. I talk about how much cash in the bank every day based on today's price and what that cash looks like annualized based on the current oil price. For me the main thing I will be watching for Q4/YE is FCF and debt reduction achievements 1 .Whether or not the Management team is on track to the

[OnionKing]

Thanks for the feedback i think the most frustrating part I suppose is the waiting. Theoretically we need to reduce debt to $1.2 Bilion and then return to shareholders can begin. My fear being like most is that we need wti to stay elevated.  Frankly once we hit $1.2 Billion, I'm more than ok with $65- $70 wti as fcf is still enough for shareholders returns and slow reduction of debt.

[masfortuna]

Once the quarter is reported we will have a better idea of what the time frame will be insofar as that elusive 1.2 billion. In all fairness, whether it is 1.2 or 1.3 oe 1.1, the strategic picture remains the same. They need to pay down the debt. I am in no rush and I am pretty confidant that wti will remain above $65 which would be at the top of their presentation numbers. Patience.

[Unlucky13]

The problem is 48 percent is hedged with draconian terms and this negates the $88 price and massively handicaps them when paying down the debt.  They are limited in their ability to pay down debt even with oil above $85.  MEG has no hedges, management was forced into terrible terms by the banks.  Maybe in 2023 the industry lagging hedges can finallly come off the books.  Can

[Snowballer]

The rate of debt reduction and increased CF is already at a point of locking in value that ultimately will pay off huge even if oil stayed at $70 for 5 years.  We alreay won if oil stays over $65

[ManitobaCanuck]

Eactly and you hit the nail on the head.A few fun facts thoughs 1) Clearwater is not included in the picture .. 2) Expect atleast 7-8$ by Q2 RESULTS and 10-12$ by 2022YE if Oil stays course b/ 80-90. 3) 250k long and strong held with another 25k in my registered accounts .

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Yes, the person not to be named is always VERY heavy on disinformation. The debt does not need to be zero before the company can do LOTS of things. This either proves ignorance or a lack of knowledge or both Have revolving lines is a normal course of business. But the disinformation campaign will never end by some regardless of whether we hit $5 or $5 for 30 days LOL

[red2000]

Brent at 100$ US is coming ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vMgzTzDkaA&t=15s&ab_channel=OilpriceVideos https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZssPQNt7FMw&ab_channel=ParetoSecurities

[MooninPaPa]

I think they said June for their debt target.

[ManitobaCanuck]

That is with WTI at 65$ base case. They pay 200mill$ in 6 months to reach their debt target of 1.2 bill from 1.4 billion( amost 34mill$/month). It is 85$WTI $ now and hedged sensitivity is 15 million per dollar per year rise AFFO, so almost 300 million$ extra funds in a year ,or about 25 million extra per month . If we remiain at this price for next 3 months , they might  reach their target

[Unlucky13]

You are very rationale Onion King.  It's definitely going to take $95 oil to get to $5 and $70 oil definitely sends this back to $70.  The issue is the debt.  It's 1.5 billion.  Doesn't matter if you make 2 million per day in revenue.  That's 750 days of $88 oil to get rid of the debt.  The EIA is suggesting $68 oil by 2023.  The supply crunch

[Volkomm]

The EIA is the LAST organization I would be taking for face value. They have been completely wrong for the past year and a half and constantly doing 180's on their calls. You might as well call them the Environmental Investment Agency. Their rhetoric is no friend to oil and gas and they seemingly are trying to distract from the true picture that is happening. I don't know how you get to

[Wildfury]

You're full of it onion man, I've read your posts and you're calling me out? Look who's complaining now about the share price?

[Wildfury]

You're full of it onion man, I've read your posts and you're calling me out? Look who's complaining now about the share price? Onion king wrote: OnionKing - (1/28/2022 10:37:32 AM) Understand the markets are suffering but $88 WTI I wonder what is happening and what it will take to get to $5?? $95 WTI If WTI drops to $70 - will likely drop to $3. Bays analysis is sound and Baytex

[OnionKing]

? Notice how I say Baytex is killing it and good things are coming.   You validated my point. Thanks The market is irrational, we all know that like I said we need a few more quarters.  relax buddy good things are coming. Maybe not tomorrow or the next but I promise in 3-6 months we'll be higher.