Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Baytex Natural Gas

[ManitobaCanuck]

Baytex has NG and their 5 year plan assumes NYMEX gas prices at 3.75$ . ITs trading at 4.99$ now and forward strip prices are around 4.5-5$ till March 2023.
Assumes the 1$ increase in O&G prices , ( 1$ hedged gives them  20mill and unhedged 28million) 
Thats another 20million to earnings based on current future price.Correct me if I  am missing something

[masfortuna]

Looks good but not sure what they hedged at and for how much.

[Unlucky13]

Pretty sure the hedged gets them an extra $13 million per dollar increase in wti, not 20 million.  So 52 percent of their barrels at $88 a barrel only gets them an extra 260 million bucks for the year instead of 560 million.  They literally are making 300 million on these hedges in 2022 if the oil price stays here.  That's why the stuck won't blast off. 

[ManitobaCanuck]

Look on page 15/36 in Jan presentation for NG Sensitivities Estimated Effect on Annual Adjusted Funds Flow ($MM) Excluding Hedges Including Hedges Change of US$1.00/bbl WTI crude oil $24.1 $15.1 Change of US$1.00/bbl WCS heavy oil differential $8.4 $3.3 Change of US$1.00/bbl MSW light oil differential $7.0 $5.3 Change of US$0.25/mcf NYMEX natural gas $7.6 $4.8 Change of $0.01 in the C$/US

[Unlucky13]

So my numbers are from 2021 but they are losing 9 million on every hedged barrel.  That's $360 million per year on just the oil at current prices!  That's why the market hates them.