Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

WTI $112.72 NatGas $4.94=BTE $1.689B/yr AFF & $1.239B/yr FCF

[BayStreetWolfTO]

For those new and tuning in.....

Accelerating the thesis one day at a time...

 

INCLUDING HEDGES LOL

YES 1.239 Billion/yr free cash flow.

Free Cash Flow at this price;

Daily $3.40 million
Week $23.78 million
Yearly $1.239 billion

Nice to see WCS $100+ impressive

Obviously way above current BTE guidance which is $550m FCF for 2022 (using $82).

Shows the impact of higher prices.

[DoubleDown23]

BSW Are you able to show your expected AFF and FCF compared to the $85 WTI chart on the March presentation ($600MM FCF) adjusted for price sensitivities including hedges of $15.1MM per $1 increase in WTI and $4.8MM increase for every $0.25 of NYMEX. My quick calculations show adjusting the $600MM FCF at $85 WTI these gets us much less than your expected $1.24B/year.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Hi DD Using the march presentation as a starting point Page 14 https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2022/2022-03%20March%20Presentation.pdf 2022 FCF = $340 Note4:  Years two through five of the five-year plan (2022 to 2025) based on the following commodity price assumptions: WTI - US$65/bbl If I just look at WTI Starting point $340M @ $65 WTI 15.1M * (112.72-65

[DoubleDown23]

I was getting just shy of $1.1B, roughly $150MM difference to your expected numbers. Just thinking about the impact on the debt at the different range of outcomes.  Fair to say the range at current pricing, based on Company data is roughly $1.1B to $1.25B.  Assuming oil price remains at these elevated prices, we are chipping away roughly $100M of the debt per month and therefore the new

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Just remember once we hit $1.2B debt  FCF will split 75% debt and 25% buybacks Just wanted to make sure you factor that....but yes same page thanks for contributing. Also don't forget less interest charges as debt decrease! so increased FCF assumption. Cheers and have a great weekend!