Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Who has a handle on Q1 earnings.

[jdmecomber]

Anyone have an estimate?

[red2000]

Here is one base on avg. WTI per month. 81,500 boe/d ! Revenues :        590M$ to 600M$ Net Back 61% :  590M$ X 61% = 360M$ Ajust Fund Flow  (AFF) : 250M$ Free CashFlow (FCF) :  160M$ to 170M$ Increase a bit those numbers if Clearwater added 3,000 boe/d or more ! Let's see what BayStreetWolf has to say ! :)

[fortunefavorsus]

I think your numberslisted below are light.  They did 552M at benchmark prices of $77 WTI and $63 WCS U.S.  If oil prices hold up until the end of the quarter then benchmark prices could average around $95-100 WTI and $85 WCS with better priced hedges.  So I think you will see closer to $200 million FCF. Here is one base on avg. WTI per month. 81,500 boe/d ! Revenues : 

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good evening Fortune, Red does a very good job trying to track the data but you are right these are all guesses which is why we wait for the Q1 results.  That said remember Q1 pricing started November 23rd, 2021 (January front month) The price you see now is the April (Q2 contract) not part of Q1... If you recall during the January Front Month we had some days there (with the COVID

[JohnnyDoe]

that's funny. The very next post has the contracts chart. Excellent!!

[fortunefavorsus]

Thanks for clarifying that is based on future month not the current month pricing.  So April will be outstanding with 2 more weeks of price data to determine average price for month.  Debt target met in early April and buybacks could start as pricing guaranteed for April.  

[fortunefavorsus]

So is the plan to have the buybacks on automatic?  Every day 25% of calculated FCF.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Yes! Q2 the average so far is >$105 Q2 reports July 28th My hope is I have a few months where I can add to my O&G positions with dividend money. Some may not understand the alignment of oil prices and financial reporting so it will give those that understand a clearer picture. The only variable to hitting debt target in April is capex in Q1 (note and capex over and above the budget

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good evening Red, Based on the Q1 average WTI moving from $76 in Q4 to $80 in Q1..(a gain of $4/bbl) I have the following. Hopefully no one assume the price today is part of Q1. Today's price is April! Remember Q1 includes December when the Covid and SPR release dropped WTI into the high $60's. Some may have forgotten this....regardless still better than Q4! Anyhow this is what I have

[jdmecomber]

This has the better hedges included correct?

[jdmecomber]

Better hedges included correct? BOE/D $82,000 Rev $595M Operating Netback $345M AFF $235M FCF $155M (note this can be impacted by additional capex?) Debt Target $1.27B

[BayStreetWolfTO]

JD, sorry good catch my mistake I have to update my quarter model with the new hedge info. I will try to get to that tomorrow.! Red ignore this I need to update!

[jdmecomber]

:) got ya 

[red2000]

Good morning BSW ! Agreed with you ! CAPEX may be higher, Q1 already very active ! WTI price used was : Dec. 2021 avg. : 75,93$  for Jan.  2022. Jan. 2022 avg. :  82,36$  for Feb. 2022. Feb. 2022 avg. :  89.82$ for Mar 2022 Same ball park figures !! We are very close ! Thank's !

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Good work Red! Yes agreed the only question for Q1 is the capex impact on FCF...they have been drilling a lot of wells...however they did have a good budget for 2022...so we will see on April 28th Regardless I assume in April sometime at these prices we hit that $1.2B debt and buybacks start shortly thereafter. Really though I am excited about Q2....the average WTI for Q2 is massive so far