Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Financial results 2011-2021

[red2000]

See below some data from each annual results since 2011 for Baytex !!!
Q1 2022 should be the best quarter ever for Baytex in terms of Revenues, AFF, FCF

My forecast 
Revenues : 601,5M$   -  AFF : 366,9M$  -  FCF : 156,4M$
Long term debt : 1,250M$

Don't hesitate to comment or post your own forecast !!!

Year	WTI US$	Diff. %	$ S/P	Diff. %	Boe/d	Diff. %	Net Debt M$	Diff. %	Out. Sh. (M)	Market Cap. (M$)	Monthly Div.	Div. Yearly M$	Rev. (M$)	Rev. Ratio	AFF (M$)	AFF Ratio	FCF (M$)	Net income (M$)	Ent. Value M$	Discount (EV/MC)	Sh/Pr value
Dec 2011	95,12  $		56,97  $		50 132		650,8  $		117,9	6 716  $	0,20	281,0  $	1 308,8  $	5,1	555,5  $	12,1		217,4  $
Dec 2012	94,19  $	-1%	42,87  $	-25%	53 986	8%	599,8  $	-8%	121,9	5 224  $	0,22	317,1  $	1 219,5  $	4,3	532,7  $	12,6		258,6  $
Dec 2013	97,97  $	4%	41,64  $	-3%	57 196	6%	762,1  $	27%	125,4	5 221  $	0,22	327,0  $	1 367,4  $	3,8	604,4  $	11,1		164,8  $
Dec 2014	92,97  $	-5%	16,61  $	-60%	78 395	37%	2 296,0  $	201%	168,1	2 792  $	0,23	395,6  $	1 969,0  $	1,4	879,8  $	7,6		(132,8) $
Dec 2015	48,79  $	-48%	3,24  $	-80%	84 648	8%	2 049,9  $	-11%	210,6	682  $	0,10	153,9  $	1 129,9  $	0,6	516,4  $	13,0		(1 133,6) $
Dec 2016	43,33  $	-11%	4,48  $	38%	69 509	-18%	1 773,5  $	-13%	233,4	1 046  $	None	None	780,1  $	1,3	276,3  $	24,3		(485,2) $
Dec 2017	50,95  $	18%	2,76  $	-38%	70 242	1%	1 734,3  $	-2%	235,5	650  $	None	None	1 091,5  $	0,6	347,6  $	19,3		87,2  $
Dec 2018	57,00  $	12%	2,00  $	-28%	80 458	15%	2 265,2  $	31%	554,0	1 108  $	None	None	1 428,9  $	0,8	472,9  $	14,2		(325,3) $
Dec 2019	57,03  $	0%	1,80  $	-10%	97 680	21%	1 871,8  $	-17%	558,3	1 005  $	None	None	1 805,9  $	0,6	902,4  $	7,4	329,0  $	(12,5) $
Dec 2020	31,75  $	-44%	0,48  $	-74%	79 781	-18%	1 799,1  $	-4%	561,2	267  $	None	None	975,5  $	0,3	311,5  $	21,6	18,0  $	(2 438,9) $
Dec 2021	60,93  $	92%	3,91  $	723%	80 156	0%	1 406,7  $	-22%	561,2	2 194  $	None	None	1 868,1  $	1,2	745,6  $	9,0	412,3  $	1 613,6  $	3 800  $	73%	6,77  $
Q1 2022	99,27  $	63%	5,55  $	42%	81 500	2%	1 250  $	-11%	564,2	3 131  $	None	None	601,5  $	0,8	366,9  $	4,6	156,4  $		4 500  $	44%	7,98  $
					Est.		Est.						Est.		Est.		Est.		Est.

More data  tomorrow !!!

GL Longs !

[Wildfury]

Question for you Red, in 2019 your chart shows Baytex production of 97,000 plus boe/d. What is the reason for Baytex not to be at those levels if they were reached a few years ago & why the drop off to 79,000-81,000 boe/d

[Snowballer]

I'm not Red and I didn't go and investigate the answer lol but I would imagine: 1) CAPEX restrictions (strict moderate growth post-pandemic combined with inflationary input costs) 2) Focus on debt repayment (75% of FCF) 3) Returns focused to shareholders (buybacks, dividend 25% of FCF) I too would be curious as to BSW and Red's technical insight...

[nikolaos]

Q1 2020 report states that they shut in production from 98k to 70ishk. Mostly Canadian Heavy as it wasnt economical. I think right now with pricing being what it is, why have they not tried to ramp up those wells?  Or is there damage to them. Good question to ask the bte management actually. 

[1234bmth]

Oil wells or rigs are not like our kitchen sink that whenever we want to open the tap to flow the water or if we want to close the tap to stop the water, most of them can't be used at all and some may need repair if they are not used for a certain period of time, therefore it needs cash investment to ramp up production and that would be very risky for companies like BTE to not paying debt down

[nikolaos]

Yes you are right, they arent like turning the tap on, hence why damage may have occured.  But they could also invest to repair and get the production up to prepandemic levels and hedge those barrels from those wells going into 2023. Not a bad idea to increase production while mitigating their risk profile on new production. But maybe it also doesnt make sense, im an investor not an oil guy

[1234bmth]

If they invest to ramp up production, there will be no cash left to pay the debt down, furthermore they can't be fixed or drilling new wells overnight, it takes months to be ready for production and what if oil drops just before they are ready to produce and hedge with low price which makes no sense or close them back which is worse, at this point in my opinion the most important thing is to

[Snowballer]

yes, that makes a lot of sense. Well said   

[JohnnyDoe]

like a lot of companies they shut in production at the start of the pandemic. Also like a lot of companies the focus is not drill baby drill. The entire industry is looking at balance sheet repair and more responsible production increases. It also seems to me that production increases are going to come from Clearwater which seems to be a more profitable play.

[red2000]

Thank's guys/girls for your answers ! I think all together, we covered well the subject. I invite you, Wildfury to see also : Message to shareholders in the annual report 2020 More details on page 5 and 6. Catch phrase 2020 : Resilient. Committed. Sustainable.   https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/Regulatory%20Filings/2020%20Annual%20Report.pdf GL LONGS !

[masfortuna]

I agree with Johnny's reponse.  I was about to answer myself but you pretty much said what I was going to say.  If i recall correctly, their breakeven point was $42 in 2019.  Oil was trading below $42 at the time.  Why produce something at a loss?

[BayStreetWolfTO]

JD, 100% if I recall the discussions were on focusing on the more profitable plays. Higher netback areas and of course balance sheet repair. As a result of those decisions here we are today. Debt ahead of target and buybacks incoming. I imagine if you asked anyone 2 years ago today if debt would be $1.2B and this quarter they would be starting buybacks you might not have had many believe you.

[red2000]

Reading suggestion :  https://stocknews.com/news/pbf-btegf-oii-3-energy-stocks-that-still-look-cheap-pbf-energy-baytex/ Baytex Energy Corp. (BTEGF - Get Rating) BTEGF is a Calgary, Canada-based oil and gas company that acquires, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its offerings