Post by
Unlucky13 on May 05, 2022 5:55am
The issue
The issue is we are all waiting for the breakthrough and it just hasn't come yet. At $108 oil it's under $7. If oil goes back under $100 this will drop a buck. So what's it going to take to go to double digits? OPEC is raising production and Europe has already announced within 6 to 9 months that it wants to be energy independent from Russia. Covid is slowly winding away and the variants are becoming less strong. Maybe earnings? Q1 didn't accomplish that, in fact we dropped rather sharply. Also, the FED keeps raising rates to slowdown inflation concerns. Borrowing won't be as cheap. It seems like slow and steady wins the race here but after waiting 8 years to get back near $7 after first buying at $50 I am a little apathetic about the comeback. I would have thought we would have been much higher by now. The buybacks are merely a drip in the bucket at this point. I think the hedging and lukewarm reception to the buybacks and the crushing debt remain the factors holding this back. I was in the camp with everyone else that we would see a bounce following earnings but now am firmly entrenched that this is dead money until 2023 once the hedges come off the books or even 2024 once debt really starts to go south. Provided all of this sounds great if long but if oil corrects this will sink really quick so it's hard to sleep knowing the bottom
could fall out at any point. Really wanted to see $8 of $8.50 by summer. Hard to listen to the Yahoo Finance crowd or thinks $10 a share is around the corner.
Comment by
JohnnyDoe on May 05, 2022 6:18am
I didn't think we'd see a bounce following earnings. I thought it would drop from retail selling when the expected bounce didn't happen. They pretty much have all dropped. Except cve.
Comment by
pigletoday on May 05, 2022 8:38am
Thank you for this. I was going to say soemthing simlar to Unlucky13