This plug is from Motley Fool Canada
https://www.fool.ca/2022/05/04/time-to-buy-baytex-energy-stock/
This from ETF Daily News. This info in this article was known prior, and this link provides another source for Baytex discovery, and ownership long term.
https://www.etfdailynews.com/2022/05/04/baytex-energy-bte-investment-analysts-weekly-ratings-changes/
As stated in the normal course issuer bid, we can only speculate how buybacks will be executed. We are only guaranteed to be updated regarding quantification of buyback statistics, with quarterly releases. That leaves room for investors to look at what is possible, and what is likely.
April 29, 2022 Baytex had 569,213,590 common shares outstanding, and there is CAD $175 M to put to work disposing of shares.
“normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) to purchase up to 56,300,143 common shares during the 12-month period commencing May 9, 2022 and ending May 8, 2023 or such earlier time as the NCIB is completed or terminated at the option of Baytex.”
“daily purchases through the facilities of the TSX will be limited to 1,772,945 common shares”
8,864,725 shares can be bought back in a week, at a cost of $62,053,075 at CAD $7. At this time, we may not have enough cash allocated to cover that yet. There are some weeks offering a better opportunity than others. Recent pullbacks are 26.87% in seven weeks Nov-Dec, 22.93% in two weeks of March, and 15.1% two weeks in April. These pullbacks tend to occur around options/futures expiration, with oil price fluctuations being a much greater influence, than Baytex options.
I think they will take advantage of morning stop hunts lightly, and attack oil futures expiration weeks hard. I would say 100,000 shares to take advantage of a stop hunt, and up to 2 million shares during oil futures expiration, and any excess capital allocated during the coldest months, when consumers spend less. Though we are still undervalued, we will still make a 52 week high and low every year. Baytex has indicated $175M for 2022, and the NCIB says May ‘22 – May ‘23. Unlike data usage of some phone plans, the buyback capital can carry-over! Being this is an election year in the US, there will be forces at work throwing every dirty trick in the book, to drive oil prices lower, as we approach the November election. Whether or not they succeed, will be interesting to watch. I am sure Baytex management will have some buyback capital allocated, for this sort of event.
Regarding poster NM, I figured it was my turn to challenge his nonsense as part my duty as a long board member. That is why I kept it short. He has negative credibility that will not be recovered. I still don’t put anyone on ignore, I just never click on their posts, except for yesterday.
May options open interest, is heavily positioned for a move to the upside. Call/Put ratios are favoring calls (stock price appreciation) at about 7:1 or greater, at just a glance.
All good for Baytex, and longs.
RS
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