Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

100% to debt with no buy backs

[Wildfury]

Baytex should change their strategy, forget about share buy backs until debt is down to $500,000,000. They honestly can't buy 56 million shares in 2022 so why make everyone think they can, it's just blowing smoke, means nothing. Why throw good FCF towards buy backs, what's the purpose? To increase share price so that the day traders reap the rewards of the longs, I say no. The faster they pay down the debt the more cash will available for share buy backs or dividends. Who cares that they have 564,000,000 million shares, ARX, CNQ, possibly SU have much more. The main reason for this stock not trading at fair value is, #1, debt, although in much better shape then 24 months ago of over 2.5 billion. #2 reason, no dividend, that's it. Share buy backs is just an illusion, making one feel that the company feels that their shares are undervalued which they are. What really shows me that the management has full confidence with future earnings & outlook is showing us some proof like insiders are buying shares. Baytex management owns less than 1% of the float, to me that sounds off alarms. Im not a fan of management, I've said this before, reason being that it was Ed & company that almost bankrupt BTE, overpaid for acquisitions & created 3 billion in debt. The reason why Baytex is still around is not because they are genius, it's because of the energy prices rebound, not because Ed & company saved it. This stock should go up, no doubt as long as energy prices stay in the ballpark. Look at the clowns running ARX, huge losses, with Crew energy, another loss, WTF. I'm not saying that Ed & Co are totally incompetent, they're doing some great things but I'm not giving him all the credit for the turnaround, I'm sorry, those credits go to Joe B, Russia, climate activists.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

My opinion on why I disagree My opinion I feel It really is a double standard some hold against BTE We both hold WCP but on July 30th, 2021 I didn't hear you complain 1 peep about WCP debt and that all money should go to debt. In fact BTE debt today is below what WCP debt was for Q2, 2021 as reported July 30th On July 30th WCP was trading at $5.71 but had a dividend. If Baytex instead

[Wildfury]

The one thing I have learned on this board is keep your opinions to yourself, prepare for negative feedback & comments. I'm not going there Wolf, as for July 2021, I never held Whitecap at that time. It's all good, we have our own views but one has to wonder as to why some are over protective, can't handle any comments, complaints, other views, opinions other than their own about

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Wild, here is the problem nowadays nobody wants to debate if their views differ....while at the same time slip in bashing. You weren't just debating your tone was bashing anyone could tell that. As I said in my opinion I disagreed and gave reasons and some history of BTE and how they got to this point. You just expect to post without debate or data/evidence to support that view You said

[JohnnyDoe]

you posted that they are looking to buy back 56m shares in 2022 and you didn't think that was possible. You posted last week that I like to correct people. Look, when you post stuff that's not correct, maybe you should expect to be corrected? It's not negative feedback, it's countering an incorrect assertion. What they have is an ncib for up to 56m shares good for a year. It

[Wildfury]

Yes JD, this is what I was referring to, you like some others know everything, are never wrong, love to critique and correct others comments. I really don't care what you or anyone else thinks, you're irrelevant to this stocks performance and value. Tell me something, you like to be in a group, a fan boy who feels protected because you agree, praise whatever your superiors say so that you

[surething1111]

Wildfury, Easy there bro. After all , we are all very fortunate to be having these discussions of what should Bte's priorities  be concerning earmarking of significant fcfs going forward. While paying down debt is very important, share buybacks using some of the fcf makes alot of sense at this point.......If you believe as I do, these shares will probably get more expensive in the

[JohnnyDoe]

The plan they've posted is quite clear. 25% of fcf in 2022. Pay debt to 800. Then consider approaches to additional shareholder returns. I have my own thoughts on this plan and I'm happy to debate how the company should move forward once they hit the 800 target. But you said they plan to buy back 56m shares in 2022 and didnt think they could achieve that. The company hasn't claimed

[Volkomm]

I think we're getting a bit too hung up on NCIB share amounts.  The amount they state is a maximum, not the minimum amount they will buy. Every company always goes with the maximum so they don't have to constantly adjust and re-apply to the TSX. It is possible they can reject it or the terms will change based on avg price, volume, etc. NCIB's have typically been floaters. You

[topdown99]

There's something we actually agree on Volkomm , the NCIB is neither the saving grace or a non-starter . While it is material , sentiment is shaping the market right now and over-priced tech stocks are the Debbie Downer (or Amber Heard) that has dropped a hot steamy coil on Wall/Bay St .  WTI is (and has been) trading over $100/bbl for months now but it drops a buck or two in the

[Volkomm]

The fluctuations in WTI/Brent are meaningless, completely agree. Thesis for the oil & gas trade is intact. If we blip down to 90's for a week or so it means no difference to me. I'm more concerned if we start staying above $130 for any length of time. 

[topdown99]

There is too much "fear" in the market right now for $130/bbl or above to be an immediate concern unless something drastically changes . The shorts can't break below $100/bbl and the longs can't get her over $115/bbl in this environment . China's "covid zero" policy is the wildcard as I see it , when Xi finally allows Shanghai to reopen then that will definitely be

[masfortuna]

I think we may also see EU sanctions this week on Russian O&G.  It may not be as complete as some predicted but there will be movement on this front as well. Personally I would be happy with oil trading between $90 and $110 all year long. Oil in the $180 range as some have predicted will not be a good thing in the long run BUT it should lead to a temporary high sp.

[ManitobaCanuck]

Couldnt agree more with you

[JohnnyDoe]

where did you get the impression they intend to buy back 56 million shares in 2022? I agree with you that it would be very difficult to achieve but it seems you've built up a hypothesis on how the company should move forward based on a misunderstanding of how they are moving forward. out of curiosity, what do you feel fair value is?