Post by
Volkomm on Jul 05, 2022 8:16am
Share Count for BTE
Whatcha guys figure a company the size of Baytex will need for a decent share float? Lets say debt is sub-$800 mil.
With a float of ~563 mil, just my opinion, but they need to at least reduce by 30%-50%, that's a lot of shares.
Comment by
Tommy007 on Jul 05, 2022 9:58am
Reduce debt or debt free ? Which way is better?
Comment by
Volkomm on Jul 05, 2022 11:17am
For Baytex I'd like to see them with sub $400 mil. Ideally 0 would be perfect but some of their notes are quite a ways out. Once the debt is gone they will have to do some heavy duty share buying to rectify past mistakes of their aquisitions. They should have done a stock split in the depths of the down turn and this problem would have went away. Thoughts?
Comment by
masfortuna on Jul 05, 2022 11:43am
Yes I do have some questions. Stocksplit? That increases share count NOT reduces it. I think you meant a reverse stock split. Also they can't buyback more than 56 million shares'ish "per year" . That's the most the would be allowed. They started this year and by the summer of 2025 we would be looking at about 350 million shares.
Comment by
BayStreetWolfTO on Jul 05, 2022 11:46am
Once debt targets are reached they can do an SIB. This allows for more than 10% of shares to be eliminated. Next year if the price of oil is $95 they will hit zero debt and be able to increase the buyback % significantly
Comment by
Volkomm on Jul 05, 2022 1:32pm
Yes, sorry. I meant reverse split. Not enough coffee this AM. Can't they accelerate the current NCIB and restart another one? I believe Imperial did two NCIB's last year, then a SIB this year and another NCIB going again.
Comment by
masfortuna on Jul 05, 2022 1:44pm
The max they could buy is 10% annually and this is based on volume as well. So I did 10% for 4 years and got about 365 million o/s.
Comment by
BayStreetWolfTO on Jul 05, 2022 2:36pm
This is a nonsense argument that always appears. With Oil at these prices I would like Baytex to spend the least amount of FCF short-term to buyback shares. This is not a very good long-term view....not many people cared Baytex dropped in 2022 from 4.33 in November to 3.31 And they certainly don't care about that drop today LOL