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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay... see more

TSX:BTE - Post Discussion

Baytex Energy Corp > Baytex : My forecast for Q2 results - 2022
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Post by red2000 on Jul 20, 2022 8:13am

Baytex : My forecast for Q2 results - 2022

Yop !
Here are my estimates for the 2nd quarter, don't be surprised if there is an increase or decrease of +/- 2% (exchange rate).

I am still confident this well be their best quarter ever !!!

Please do your DD, it's your money !!!

GL Longs !

Image
Comment by CoachAmI on Jul 20, 2022 8:21am
Looks awesome.  Thanks for sharing.  I thought BTE was only allowed to buy back 5 million shares?
Comment by dandu1924 on Jul 20, 2022 8:27am
In the news May 2th 2022, BTE received the OK to buyback 56,300,143  from May 9th 2022 to May 8th 2023. So this about 10%.
Comment by CoachAmI on Jul 20, 2022 8:33am
Thanks for the clarification.  That is great.
Comment by BayStreetWolfTO on Jul 20, 2022 9:08am
Great work Red. I had a lower Capex number than I believe you're using ~ $175m? Impact will be on FCF. My estimate is down around 125M in capex, Good job.
Comment by red2000 on Jul 20, 2022 12:15pm
Hey hey BSW !  Hold on tight ! Only 1 week before Q2 results !!! Here are more details about figures used in my forecast ! BOE/D 1st scenario : Conservative number 82,000 boe/d. But in their july presentation we see this on page 5. Increased production guidance to 83,000 to 85,000 boe/d on the back of strong operating momentum and production growth on our Clearwater lands, Expect to ...more  
Comment by red2000 on Jul 20, 2022 12:26pm
sorry see below picutre missing in my last post. Hope it's ok now ! So if they want to reach they avg. of 84,000 boe/d or so, this is my own calculation In 1st quarter of 2020 they adjust their balance sheet and reduce their reserves value for 2,7B$ base on the number below :
Comment by KingandBay on Jul 20, 2022 1:36pm
Red, Awesome work, very much appreciated! Would this be the most profitable qtr in the companies  history?  
Comment by red2000 on Jul 20, 2022 4:19pm
I am pretty sure in term of Gross Revenues and FCF !!!
Comment by KingandBay on Jul 20, 2022 4:57pm
Yes and at the same time reducing debt vs growing debt. 
Comment by ManitobaCanuck on Jul 20, 2022 5:01pm
Good Work Red ,Great analysis :)  Highlights the potential of this company . In 2020 they were thrown out similar to throwing out the baby with the bathwater from the bathtub. 
Comment by Maxmoe on Jul 20, 2022 11:54am
Hey, wtf, this is useful fact based data. Not hyperbolic opinion and highly suspicious "concerns". Thanks man!!    
Comment by Maxmoe on Jul 20, 2022 12:07pm
Just being picky but share buyback for Q2 is in the bag, reported to June 30. 5,918,476 June plus 3,156,000 from June total 9,074,476 so your 10 million is close enough for rocknroll. Balance must be in cash or debt paydown.
Comment by HighOctane89 on Jul 20, 2022 5:23pm
After reading the worksheet below I have to disagree with some of your calculations/assumptions . At the end of Q1 LT debt was $1.27B but that report also stated an intention to buyback/retire the last $200M bond issue . When you consider that the bonds were US funds it would translate into about $260M Canadian paid on LT debt which drops the total down to $1B , not $1.1B . If BTE increased ...more  
Comment by Maxmoe on Jul 20, 2022 5:32pm
Maybe red's just a Wiley old coyote and purposefully has a small margin for mgmt to beat expectations. Best model I've seen. A "supermodel".  
Comment by red2000 on Jul 21, 2022 9:04am
Good joke Maxmoe !! Wiley old coyote ! You know that at the end he catch the roadrunner !!! :) For Highoctane89 !! I hope you are right with your scenario with less LT Debt after Q2 !!! But as far as I am concern Baytex don't print money !!!  But sometimes it look like that :) But I have to admit they grab all the money they can to reduce this LT debt under 800M$ and reduce it more in ...more