Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Anyone know why...

[CoachAmI]

....BTE gets hit so much harder (% wise) than it's peers in these down times?  Yesterday, it dropped double (% wise) than many others that I was watching.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Tough to say CA, maybe trying to bring it more into line with TSX Energy Cap. BTE currently 6th YTD but many other names SYMBOL NAME YTD %CHANGE  SDE-T Spartan Delta Corp 106.70% PD-T Precision Drilling Corp 92.91% VET-T Vermilion Energy Inc 89.37%

[Cobalt]

My first guess would be relative debt levels , higher the relative debt the higher the volatility?

[Canukiwi]

.....and relative number of shares.

[1condor]

And it continues...investors rotating their oil and gas profits over to the techology sector. You guys are seeing this right? I expect it so accelerate...so BTE has considerably more downside from here in the short term.

[Cobalt]

Ya they talking lower profits in 23 now, AUG 23 oil is down to $82 next year , but we know better ;P

[Cobalt]

Saudi Arabia Lifts Crude Prices To Asia To Record High

[deepblue]

I believe Bte is mainly heavy oil.

[scienceguy36]

If you read the two presentations of BTE and CJ (or any other company that is unhedged, low float and low debt) very thoroughly, i think you can come up with a better answer to your question than what is being offered. It is very apparent that even many analysists or bloggers that write about some of these companies have not read the financial statements themselves but are regurgitating what

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Scienceguy, I agree you need to determine your metrics. Since you mentioned CJ yes right now they are in good shape but you need to understand the downside in all names For instance CJ is looking good now but with a drop to $70 not my first pick.If you are confident $90+ it is a good hold This chart helps detail the downside risk in $70 oil Again is confident oil will be $90+ it could change

[BayStreetWolfTO]

I do think his chart has an error for SGY. It is not zero. I believe they are around 15% at $70

[JohnnyDoe]

I wonder about the validity of these charts from Nuttall. CJ just produced 22k/day in Q2. At 70 wti, that is 562m in annualized revenue. At 8% fcf, that's not enough fcf to pay CJ's dividend. CJ says their current dividend is safe at 55. CJ's declaration about the safety of their dividend and that chart don't tell the same story.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

JD, I think you would have to look at netback CJ netback in Q1-22 was $50.47 Baytex netback in Q1-22 was $54.91 (with tough hedges) I'm not sure what the CJ netback is at $70....Q1 Average WTI was $95. This is why it is critical in a down trend for investors to know the numbers. I can't speak to how good EN charts are...but what are companies making "net" is very important

[scienceguy36]

This is a good example of how a financial statement can be given a spin. Netback without the final adjusted funds flow does not give an honest picture of the financial health of a company. I am not here to promote any company but just to point out that one has to due their own due diligence instead of relying on what others post. EX. BTE Q2 CJ Q2

[scienceguy36]

Q2 BTE Operating netback (2) $ 66.98   $ 54.91   $ 33.92   $ 61.07   $ 31.90   General and administrative   (1.54 )   (1.61 )   (1.44 )

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Exactly....now look to 2023 and adjust for the Realized financial derivatives loss and Interest...which will be much different in 2023. But yes lots of ways to spin it...I'm looking at 2023 Also don't forget G&A as prices drop what is the carry cost of overhead when smaller... Not here to argue just know what you own

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Sure lets go right down to Cash Flow From Continuing Operating Activities reported by the TMX We all know Cash Flow Statement is the king.  Q1 Average WTI $95 CJ  CFOA $50M BTE CFOA  $162M CJ Share Out 162M BTE Share Out 555M CJ CFOA per share $0.308 BTE CFOA per share $0.358 But yes I agree spin can distract. As some say show me the cash....don't forget BTE far

[JohnnyDoe]

here's what CJ said about their dividend when they announced it " When setting the initial rate for the reinstatement of the dividend, Cardinals Board of Directors took into account the backwardation of the one year price curve for WTI crude oil, current debt levels and the sustainability of the dividend in the case of a significant drop in oil prices. The Company's goal is to sustain

[BayStreetWolfTO]

JD, reposting. do you know what the CJ netback is at $70 or say $55? Sorry I don't know. This was my prior post JD, I think you would have to look at netback CJ netback in Q1-22 was $50.47 Baytex netback in Q1-22 was $54.91 (with tough hedges) I'm not sure what the CJ netback is at $70....Q1 Average WTI was $95.