Post by
BayStreetWolfTO on Oct 30, 2022 1:04pm
JD, CEO changes
JD, regarding the following....
"this is my biggest concern with baytex as well. With Ed, I knew exactly what was going to happen. They had a long term plan and stayed with it. Anytime I was unclear on something, IR provided the clarity. I want the debt driven to 400. And I'm good with fcf at higher than 50% beyond the 400 target with debt being driven to zero. I do not want acquisition that dilutes shares or increases debt. If either happens I am out the day it is announced
A couple points
1. First I would be very surprised if the Baytex Board of Directors brought someone in that did NOT allign with the Baytex published strategy. Remember the CEO reports to the Board.
2. I am holding long-term based on the published plan. I want debt to $400M and once that is reached I am good with FCF to shareholder returns >50%.
3. I do NOT want "Material" aquisitions that would add shares or debt. Again I would be VERY surprised if the Board of Directors went against their published plan...bringing in someone who didn't align with that.
I will be listening VERY closely to the conference call and for now am confident that the go forward strategy will NOT change.
We don't need this turning into a WCP for instance....pushing out timelines with increased debt.
Baytex has been laser focused 100%....I have no reason to expect a shift.
That said I am LONG based on the published strategy.
Also don't forget there are some MAJOR shareholders of BTE. One of which certainly pushes the debt reduction/shareholder return agenda....people in Cdn O&G have seen what happens to share prices when they deviate from plan.
On the conference call I EXPECT
1. Debt focused to $800m than down to $400m
2. Buybacks 25% of FCF (buy the flippers and shorts)
3. At $800m buybacks 50% of FCF (very soon) (buing back more flippers and shorts)
4. At $400m the next phase and what that is I would like FCF allocation >50%
Comment by
JohnnyDoe on Oct 31, 2022 6:28am
Another wcp. Exactly what I don't want. Driving debt to 400 with a 50/50 mix and initiating increased shareholder returns after that. And to quote Ed "meaningful dividend" so expecting by end of 2024 that dividend to be around a buck annually.
Comment by
BayStreetWolfTO on Nov 04, 2022 6:10pm
JD, exactly what I wanted to hear on the call. New CEO completely aligned to the strategy...as we move toward 75% FCF for shareholders. Great call