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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay... see more

TSX:BTE - Post Discussion

Baytex Energy Corp > From CJ board at ceo.ca
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Post by Drifter133 on Nov 22, 2022 3:33pm

From CJ board at ceo.ca

From CJ board at ceo.ca

PAUL MATTHEWS NOVEMBER 18, 2022 Over the past few months, a great deal of attention has been focused on the Biden administration’s decision to draw down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a blatant attempt to manipulate the price of oil to desperately drive down gasoline prices at the pump. This decision was purely political, and it represents a new low in American politics — the blatant use of publicly owned, strategic resources to sway votes in this year’s midterm elections. Although gasoline prices have declined modestly since this policy was enacted in March, this decision, in conjunction with other legislation passed by this administration, has left the United States oil reserve in an extremely precarious position. When President Joe Biden was sworn into office in late January 2021, SPR inventories stood at 638,086,000 barrels. In the most recent U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) report dated Nov. 11, 2022, SPR inventories have declined to 392,119,000 barrels, a drop of 245.97 million barrels (-38.55 percent). With this decline to fewer than 400 million barrels, SPR reserves now stand at their lowest level since late March 1984. However, these headlines fail to tell the truth about Biden’s effort to deplete the SPR — which now essentially stands at about 100 million barrels, some 75 percent less than the “official” EIA inventory number. Let me explain. In August 2022, Biden, in collaboration with House Democrats and feckless Republican Senate leadership, passed and signed into law HR 3684, otherwise known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. This bill passed the House of Representatives on a 228-205 vote, with all 220 Democrats and 8 Republicans voting in favor. In the Senate, this bill passed on a 69-30 vote (Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota did not vote), with support from all 50 Democrats and 20 Republicans, including support from the entire Senate Republican leadership (Sens. Mitch McConnell, John Thune, and Mike Crapo). Tucked away in this monstrous bill (see page 914) was authorization mandating that the secretary of energy, “shall draw down and sell from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve 87,600,000 barrels of crude oil during the period of fiscal years 2028 and 2031.” The bill further added, “Amounts received from the sale … shall be deposited in the general fund of the Treasury during the fiscal year in which the sale occurs.” In other words, in order to pay for a portion of this $1 trillion in new spending, this law requires the additional sale of oil from the SPR. And by legislating this “trick,” the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) “score” improved, giving the appearance that the infrastructure bill would be less costly to the American taxpayer. However, this was not the first time Biden has used the sale of oil from the SPR to offset a portion of his profligate spending during his tenure as president or vice president. The genesis for this budget chicanery began in the late stages of the Obama administration. In October 2015, the Obama-Biden administration worked with the same Senate Republican leadership to pass the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015. This act raised the debt ceiling, increased discretionary spending in fiscal years 2016 and 2017, and averted a potential government shutdown. Tucked in this bill was a mandate to sell 58 million barrels of oil from the SPR during fiscal years 2018-2025. Once again, this act was shepherded through the Senate under the leadership of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Not to be outdone, the Obama-Biden administration dipped into this well a second time with the passage of the 2015 FAST Act in December 2015. This bill mandated the sale of 66 million barrels of SPR oil during fiscal years 2023-2025. And once again, the bill was moved through the Senate by McConnell. Subsequent pieces of legislation including the 2017 Tax Revision Act, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, and America’s Water Infrastructure Act of 2018 also followed suit authorizing the sale of an additional 104.5 million barrels of oil from the SPR. All told, mandated SPR oil sales from these various laws now total 358.6 million barrels, of which 288.1 million barrels have yet to be sold. And with the Biden administration extending its SPR sales by an additional 15 million barrels in mid-October, the current SPR inventory will soon decline to fewer than 380 million barrels. However, when future legislatively mandated sales of 288.1 million barrels are included, America’s strategic oil inventory will soon fall to fewer than 100 million barrels, a supply of just 5.3 days given our daily use rate of 18.68 million barrels. Although the Biden administration recently announced its intention to refill the SPR if oil prices fall to $67-$72, this pledge rings hollow. For the past several years, the endless pursuit of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) policies and the anti-fossil fuel sympathies of the Biden administration have severely curtailed investment in oil patch. Additionally, the establishment of a new floor price for crude oil will not precipitate American oil producers to increase production. Even if new oil reserves are discovered and developed, roughly 5 to 7 percent of world production must be replenished each year, just to offset the natural rate of depletion from existing wells. Given the numerous production/supply headwinds, world oil prices have remained range-bound between $80 to $100 per barrel, despite extremely sluggish Chinese demand (as they continue rolling Covid lockdowns). And once the roughly 1 million barrels a day of supply from U.S. SPR sales are removed from the world market, oil prices are not likely to head much lower. Unless oil is added to the SPR, America’s emergency supply of oil in the case of war or a major national disaster will remain at dangerously low levels for the foreseeable future. Let us hope that the short-sighted policies enacted by our current president and our go-along-to-get-along Senate minority leader do not jeopardize American economic and national security any further. 

Comment by Drifter133 on Nov 22, 2022 3:36pm
Sorry but here's the link https://thefederalist.com/2022/11/18/biden-and-mcconnell-have-left-our-strategic-petroleum-reserve-in-worse-shape-than-you-think/
Comment by Greenday on Nov 22, 2022 5:00pm
Not sure that the SPR has any significant impact on the world price of oil as the SPR is just inventory.  Not that much different than if all car owners decided to hold 3/4 of a tank of gas rather than a 1/2 tank.  The total amount of fuel doesn't change, it just the place where it's being stored that's changed.  
Comment by Burgersandfries on Nov 22, 2022 6:48pm
I think it had an impact for the time needed during the midterms. The spr needs to be re filled at some point and that's a lot of barrels Biden said he would start at $70 oil good luck with that!
Comment by LittleOgre1 on Nov 23, 2022 3:14pm
So what do you think the odds of the USA using 60 dollar Russian oil to replenish SPR?  I reckon its pretty good.  
Comment by GambinoB on Nov 23, 2022 3:24pm
So what do you think the odds of Russia closing the taps to anyone demanding enforcement of a price cap? I reckon pretty good.
Comment by LittleOgre1 on Nov 23, 2022 4:04pm
Right now India is buying about 1 million barrels a day.  So lets say China dose 2.  The states has approved American tankers to ship russian oil as long as it is purchased at price cap or below.  Pretty sure some of it will be bought at cap seeing as the vast magority of navel insurers are based out of the west anything shipped by sea will be bought at cap.  now how much do ...more  
Comment by LittleOgre1 on Nov 23, 2022 4:13pm
On a side note this is oil that is all ready on the market.  If indeed the states uses it to refill the spr instead of buying state side to do so it will still be a nice bump in oil price.  If Mr. Putin decides to turn off the taps to all who wish to buy at cap well then thats close to 4 million barrels off the market.  Opec can not cover that.  So either Iran or Venzezuela ...more  
Comment by HighOctane89 on Nov 23, 2022 4:32pm
[quote=LittleOgre1]Right now India is buying about 1 million barrels a day.  So lets say China dose 2.  The states has approved American tankers to ship russian oil as long as it is purchased at price cap or below.  Pretty sure some of it will be bought at cap seeing as the vast magority of navel insurers are based out of the west anything shipped by sea will be bought at cap.  ...more  
Comment by LittleOgre1 on Nov 23, 2022 5:49pm
High octane you kinda missed the point.  while you are 100% correct the argument/statement was weather the US will use 60 dollar oil from russia to replenish the spr.  either way 77 oil will not be here long.
Comment by GambinoB on Nov 23, 2022 6:10pm
Little ogre, i think you miss the point. You seem to think Putin will sell oil at $60 just like he gives a rats a s s about Ukraine. I do agree though 77 oil will not be here for long. High octane you kinda missed the point.  while you are 100% correct the argument/statement was weather the US will use 60 dollar oil from russia to replenish the spr.  either way 77 oil will not be ...more  
Comment by HighOctane89 on Nov 23, 2022 6:16pm
I didn't miss the point LittleOgre , to me it seems obvious , if there is anyway Biden could get his hands on $60/b Russian oil he would buy all he could get . The US government acts like they are against Russia and on Ukraine's side but nothing could be further from the truth . US officials have written in all sorts of "backdoors" and "extenuating circumstances" for ...more  
Comment by Greenday on Nov 23, 2022 6:45pm
Russia has already had close to 90K men killed, tens of thousands injured, and called up 300K more.  If their losses keep mounting, they're not going to have to worry about $60/b Russian oil.  They're not going to have enough working age men left to work in the oil fields.  Lots of speculation out there that their whole economy could collapse.
Comment by dllscwbysfn on Nov 22, 2022 6:54pm
Comment by Greenday on Nov 22, 2022 11:49pm
@ dllscwbysfn - Somebody may be able to post some empirical data showing a correlation between the "world" price of oil and the inventory level of the SPR, in which case I would defer.  In the absence of any data though, I'm still skeptical that a release or an addition to the reserve has any lasting impact on the price of oil.   There's no doubt that a release ...more  
Comment by uwebb429 on Nov 23, 2022 2:52am
The biggest problem with the SPR release for the last 7 months is that the oil being released into the market is in direct competition with the heavy oil (WCS) that Canadian companies produce and send to the United States.  Since the SPR release started, the WCS - WTI differential has grown from about $12 / barrel to $29 / barrel. It is true that not all of this difference can be blamed on ...more  
Comment by dllscwbysfn on Nov 23, 2022 8:21am
Greenday, The SPR releases went into my gas tank and I drove around and it is gone forever!!