Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alright Snowball

[TheWokeLemming]

WTI about to test $81 again.  What does your crystal ball tell you?

[Cobalt]

Needs to get over $82 with conviction or it s just another lower high in a down trend

[Cobalt]

Yup just another lower high in a down trend, 2.5 million barrels of extra equivalent supply in 22 and 1 more million in 23 coming, The shortage story is dead shh dont tell anyone ;)

[Snowballer]

I still have a target of $87/$88 WTI and a $6.30 - $6.50 range target on BTE. Hiting these targets still keeps us in a downtrend.

[Tradestay]

Can you give some colour on your share price range 6.30 to 6.50, because at $87/$88 WTI BTE free cash flow will be over $600M just over or shy of $700 million based on their presentation. That puts debts to below $700 and increase share buybacks begins. 

[Snowballer]

Simply following technical targets which may or may not play out, of course. But I suspect we see that push up over the next few weeks. We could be putting in a higher low here from the recent bottom on BTE and WTI so we could easily go lower here before trending back up. Macro is still a bearish downtrend as BTE and WTI still below 200DMA.

[David01montreal]

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[1234bmth]

Based on Dec presentation BTE FCF for 2023 at: $80 WTI is $565M so $423M in debt reduction and $141M in share buyback, at $75 WTI FCF would be $435M, then $326M in debt reduction and $108M in share buyback. In both case debt would around $600M or lower depending to oil price average for the year, that means BTE will be in a very strong position by the end of 2023 if WTI averages $75 +  

[dllscwbysfn]

Where does capex fit into your math??

[1234bmth]

Just look at BTE Dec presentation slide 11 and 14 and you will get what I wrote.  

[dllscwbysfn]

Sorry, I misread your post I thought you had said $70WTI

[David01montreal]

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[1234bmth]

personally I am not in favour of buyback and spending more on drilling in case of BTE, because the debt still is too high, I prefer aggressively reducing debt up to a reasonable level and start paying dividend, but this is management decision.  

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Snowballer]

I would prefer if they kept production flat with small growth, continue balanced program of share buyback and debt pmt program.