Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Baytex holds the top 15 Clearwater wells

[Drifter133]

"Baytex holds the top 15 Clearwater wells drilled to-date on an initial rate basis; outperforming Baytex type curve assumptions"

Why is Baytex not getting any love with these awesome Pevine wells? Still nonbelievers, decline rates, still only projecting 12,000 to 15,000 bbl/d over a ten-year period? (what's with that when we're already at 12,000 in Nov.)

[red2000]

7 wells over 1,000 bbl/d !!! Amazing ! Avg. wells 964 bbl/d !!!! Total wells : 14,462 bbl/d !!! And they expect to drill 31 net wells in 2023, see below !

[jleer42]

I am surprised they are not planning - per update - on boosting output more from Peavine. 12-15k bpd for the next 10 years. As they are already in that range I would think 31 new wells would push far beyond that. I can't see them leaving these as duc's and it's like they have a 50% decline rate. Strange.

[Bennys65]

Listening to past CC with the company I think they take under promise over deliever a little too far.One part I dont like is that they said they would be moving to the east of peavine block to derisk that area.They are not doing that at present .Instead they are drilling up to 10 strat tests to look for more clearwater targets on their large land base as well as drilling 2 seal wells which are

[JohnnyDoe]

  I know from communicating with Brian Ector that they really err on the side of caution with projections. I understand why they take that approach But if they drilled 22 wells that resulted in 12k production in November and they're planning to drill 23 wells this year without increasing production, that's an actual problem or it's conservative to the point it is damaging

[Bennys65]

Went back and looked at 2023 budget.Brought 23 wells onstream in 2022.They expect to bring 31 wells onstream in 2023..To your point.Are they being conservative or painting the wrong picture.

[JohnnyDoe]

  There's a few things that don't really add up to me on Clearwater projections. If it produced 12,000 in November off 22 wells and they plan to drill 23 wells, wouldn't the production volume grow more than simply projecting 12-15000? At the low end, that's simply replacement level.  I also don't understand the math on well economics and thought these wells were

[TheWokeLemming]

  Math is hard.  Lol.  

[dllscwbysfn]

It looks to me that they started drilling in 2021and by Nov. of 2022 they had production of 12,000 bbl/d. So those wells drilled in 2021 still produce oil, I do not know what the rate of depletion is. I think you have to factor that in. Also I thought they talked about how much oil they produced on AVERAGE over the whole year or YTD. They might exit 2022 with a much higher rate than the average

[JohnnyDoe]

my understanding is that in November they were producing 12K daily but obviously the average for the year is a lot lower than that. But if they are producing 12K nd drilling all those wells, either they are underestimating or the decline rate is rather high 

[dllscwbysfn]

I agree. What is the decline rate??? Anybody??

[dllscwbysfn]

Now you got me thinking. If you drill 22 wells in one year and they all produce 1000 barrels/ day you would have 22,000/ day. So clearly these things come out very hot and then decline very fast. Decline rate has to be way greater than 50% because you are still getting some production from 2021 wells. Is this decline rate data on their website?

[David01montreal]

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[Tradestay]

What are you talking about debt is down from over $2B (2.3 approximately) from 2018 to just over $1B as of last quarter report and projected to be $600M or less with current WTi pricing.  That reduction is with BTE going through covid and low hedges affecting them in 2021 and 2022. The company dropped debt by over 50% with 2 years of terrible oil prices and hedges out of the last 4 years

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Hightowntrader]

I vote 180 degrees opposite!

[Bennys65]

Decline in the clearwater is much better than shale wells due to not fracking.The big wells 1000bpd are in the sweet spot in the middle of the play .The wells we have drilled to the west come on at 300 to 350 which is still really good and on par with martin hills core .As Ed pointed out the big difference between peavine and core martin hills is the eur which is much higher in martin hills

[dllscwbysfn]

The summer of 2022 wti was at 120. So $30/barrel more compared to 90 equates to an extra 840K in less than a month, assuming 1000barrels /day.