Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

I wouldn't count on it

[masfortuna]

I think the deal should and will go through. On a metrics level with production staying flat they should be at 140 million barrels in June 2024. Assuming that from the FCF they could buy 50 million shares or about 275 million CDN, it will take 6 years to payout the shares given out. Any increase in production and any additional funds allocated to the buyback will accelerate the elimination of the 300 million shares. Add the remaining fcf (225 million) for the divy (85 million) and the debt and we are looking at 13 years AT TODAY's LEVELS OF PRODUCTION. Any increase in wti pricing OR increased production drastically reduces the timeline to our preset share structure and debt. I say good deal although it appears to be a calculated risk on the direction of oil.

[1234bmth]

Unfortunately recently the investors in commodity stocks are no longer considering to wait 5 years to get a decent return on their investment. As a result of the deal it will take another 3 years or so to bring down the debt to $1B and maybe 5 years to bring OS shares to current level if oil holds at least $75, but there is always down side risk to oil price as well. IMO it will attract rational

[1234bmth]

Correction: I meant it will not attract rational investors.

[riski]

I'm not sure why you would post numbers like this when all the real numbers are available in the presentation online. The deal with the creator, stabilizes the company, and puts them in a position to pay back those shares in debt and just over two years at $85 WTI, and just over three years at $75 WTI. never mind $100 oil where this will be an absurd gold mine. Plus it puts a bigger safety net

[masfortuna]

Sorry Riski i am not sure if you meant my numbers or 1234Alphabetguy. My numbers were off the top of my head as I was driving to work. I think I was in the ballpark. The other guy is just sour and has been for the last little while EVEN BEFORE the merger.

[riski]

Sorry mas, that was directed at 1234 who seems to have an agenda.  He had all day yesterday to take a position at a great price, and now seems to regret it, regret selling, or is looking for a lower entry.  It's a good lesson in knowing what you own and seizing opportunities. It's not wise to trust that the short term market movements know what they are doing. There is

[1234bmth]

I don't have any agenda, I give my opinion based on my past experience especially with BTE. I am holding BTE since 2016 and I initially bought it at around $6.25 ish and around the same time MEG was $6.75 ish now 6 years later BTE is $1 lower than it was when I bought it and MEG is more than 3 times as it was 7 years a go and most oil stocks are higher than 2016, but BTE is lower. For those

[Cobalt]

All Clearwater has been garbage compared to Oil sands One year TVE -20% HWX -14% BTE -3% ATH +48% Meg +35% CVE +32 %

[1234bmth]

The reason I am saying this is that anything BTE has gotten positive momentum, the management has killed that momentum by doing a surprise, I am not against acquisation and growth, but it should be done in a way that takes in to account the benefit of the long term shareholders. This was not an appropriate time for acquisition. BTE management should have worked more on cost reduction and reducing

[CanadianPatriot]

Deal neglects to consider the fact that the world is weaning off of oil.  Is oil going anywhere in our lifetimes no we need it for a number of reasons.  However, weaning off of oil means that lower oil prices will eventually start to impact the value of this deal.  Some say 5 years for EV to impact oil, some say ten years.   So by prolonging the potential payout over the

[riski]

That's the narrative the progressive governments and media are always trying to sell - and it worked in 2020 (Elizabeth May "Oil is dead" - May 2020), but have you ever done the numbers to see what that looks like and if its possible? Everyone loves a story, but no one likes to do the math. 

[masfortuna]

Right.  Just like the world is not using coal.  Meanwhile CHINA/INDIA are literally building one coal generated power plan per week (NO EXAGGERATION CHECK IT OUT). I think you are reading into what the Libs?Dems/The EU are hoping for and the actual reality. We may hit peak oil this spring.  I thought peak oil was a done thing in 2018??? Yup you drank the Kool-Aid.

[Chrisinvan7]

Look at a 20 year coal chart and tell me how the government mandated phasing out of that commodity is going.. 

[dllscwbysfn]

Hey Mas, I think your numbers might be off. If I total your FCF it comes to 685 million/year. In the press release I thought they stated that FCF would nearly double, so closer to a billion.  I think the best thing I read yesterday was also from you. You stated the obvious that the whole deal really comes down to WTI. At todays rate it is a pretty good deal. If wti jumps $10 or more it is a