Longs and Momentum traders,
My apologies for not posting more often. I do still read some of the posts here.
I have not sold a share yet. I don’t intend to.
My take on driving – combustion engine vs electric is different from most people. I don’t think the
one or the other discussion is the question. I believe electric will be short range, and electric with
combustion engine electricity generation, for longer range vehicles, is how the industry will end up.
Combustion engines with electronic controls will be here longer than me.
It appears the new CEO has lived up to his reputation. His last assignment was four acquisitions and out. Not much more than three months into his new assignment, and another one is in progress. My take is that it stinks in the short term. It also appears to me that it is supposed to. ALL BY DESIGN !
THE GOOD:
More BOE in an area close to refineries and shipping to anywhere via tanker.
THE BAD:
More Senior Notes and More Share Dilution
The UGLY:
A Lawsuit. No Shareholders will get any money from this.
*** Imagine Clint Eastwood ready to draw on some bankers and our new CEO! Just Saying
Summary,
It is all by design, and institutions are now ready to take a position at the expense of those who invest without help from other institutions. All the pieces that previously prevented institutional investment in Baytex, have been corrected.
NYSE Listing – Declared Dividend – Larger Market Cap – Banker Endorsement & Credit Rating – Positive Free Cash Flow – Growth Story – Hype forthcoming?
Now the criteria has been met and institutions are ready to load up! They don’t want to pay what Baytex was trading for, so what do you do? You create a BS Lawsuit! It’s to drive that share price down.
When the dust clears, Baytex will look good. It may take longer than we thought, and external uncertainties come into play. Recession is due, and banks with gambling habits are going to fall. Central Banks will throw money at the problem (making the problem bigger), and it’s the Michael Burry predicted housing crash, and cascading bank failures all over again.
What will lead us back from the ashes? Oil and gas, plus precious and industrial metals. 2011 is an example, when the junior miners payed a hefty dividend, while oil and gas companies were all the range until 2014.
Near term, it will be doom and gloom, and private shareholder’s are going to be tricked into selling, completing the bag-holder cycle. Institutions will begin buying in advance of Baytex being added to indexes, and the forced ownership that follows. Institutions will always know before we do, when things happen. It’s illegal without any enforcement, and everyone knows it.
All we can do is wait longer, or sell to the manipulators and help their cause. I really want to paint it differently, though this is how I see it. I reserve the right to be wrong. Time will tell.
Back to work for me. If I have time, an update on Master Yoda's position will be released on April 1st, as a follow up to last years post - due to popular demand!
RS