Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

What if...

[red2000]

What do you think will happen if... see many questions below ! 
Hope for to read your answers. Feel free to add your own questions 

#1 : What will happen if Baytex shares hit 7$ before the deal closes...

 A) Fewer shares to issue to finalize the deal.
 B) Same shares issued but less LT Debt. Because they will use issued shares to pay LT Debt.
 C) Yours answer...

#2 : What will happen to the S/P of Baytex if the deal is closes before the end of Q2 ?

 A) From 5,74$ to ...$
 B) Yours answer...

#3 : When do you see (month-year) the boe/d reaching 120,000 ?

#4 : Are you still confident to see the WTI over 90$ this year ?

[ManitobaCanuck]

The ratio is fixed and will not fluctuate, so the amount of shares to be issued are fixed .   The debt will reduce by 500mill from Dec 2022 to July 2023 as there is no buybacks.   I fully expect $90 Oil but even at $75 WTI , they will hit $9 -10 in 2024

[dllscwbysfn]

Even though i like the idea that they could pay off 500M in 6 months I do not think this is the case. I think it might be a lot closer to 250M. Hope i am wrong, maybe show me your math.

[ManitobaCanuck]

Hi   Please see the proforma merger presentation of Baytex where they speak about 1billion in FCF of combined entity at $75 WTI . Every $5 increase in WTI increased FCF by 218mill/yr ,$1 decrease in WCS differential increases FCF by 17mill/yr and Change of US$0.50/MMbtu NYMEX natural gas increase FCF by 15mill . Last 6 months no repurchases by BTE or Ranger .  Oil averaged approx

[JohnnyDoe]

It's not really clear in the acquisition deck what happens to bte cash flow in the first half of 2023. Ultimately it's either cash on hand to pay the acquisition or it's used to pay existing debt. And that may depend on the debt terms, paying existing or saving to reduce acquisition debt.  Your 218 fcf number is actually adjusted cash flow. On page 4 of the Ranger acquisition

[dllscwbysfn]

Is that how that works? BTE gets Rangers FCF from the begining of this year? I assumed we would receive nothing until the deal closes.Same with their debt, I assume that BTE doesnt get Rangers debt until the deal closes.

[uwebb429]

The deal metrics have already been decided. It does not matter if Baytex goes up or down. Ranger shareholders will get $13.31 USD in cash and 7.49 shares of Baytex for every Ranger share they own. If Baytex is trading at $7.00 by the end of June, Ranger shareholders will be very happy.  BTE is already trading at a value that assumes this deal will close at the end of Q2. I do not expect to

[masfortuna]

According to an article in "oilprice", the oil demand is fragile and is appearing to weaken.

[JohnnyDoe]

Red, a few thoughts 1. As others have noted, the deal is fixed. Bte shareprice doesn't impact the deal  2. I expect it will take a couple of Qs before the market really sees the fcf being cranked out  3. Ranger reported in their year end that they exited the year at 50k a day oil equivalent so combining with Baytex they're already at 140ish.  4. Personally I remain

[masfortuna]

You probably have noticed that I am an oil bull based on my posts. I would need to disagree on a couple of points.  A) We could see $50 oil if he hit a recession. Anybody run the numbers on $50 oil? It doesn't look good. We barely stay afloat. B) We have been hearing about a supply issue BUT the lat 10 months we steadily declined. Not sure about supply issues if price keeps declining. C

[dllscwbysfn]

All of your points are valid. I do think though that OPEC controls the market and $50 oil is not something they would allow to happen. Oil got into the mid 60's for a short period and OPEC responded. SPR releases against OPEC who do you think wins this in the long run?

[masfortuna]

We talking about and stating "in the long run".  How long is your "run". we hit $63 and we were not in a recession.  You don't think $50 is possible?  Plus as I said already, these guys made a huge acquisition and there are a lot ofquestion marks attached. And let's not forget that share count. I have no problems with acquiring a company but this is more

[JohnnyDoe]

All of WCP, CPG and BTE have made significant acquisitions that involved going from a near clean balance sheet to jacking debt. I bailed immediately on WCP. With CPG and BTE I find the mid term value is compelling. Longbterm is outrageous.  Yes obviously a recession can happen but that doesn't necessarily mean 50 dollar oil. There's been fairly significant inflation in the oil patch

[riski]

I think this is what the market is missing most about the possibility of a recession. The macro oil picture indicates long-term demand/supply imbalance which would only be a slightly and temporary alteration in demand.  This may mean $50 oil for a few months, but it's not going to impact the value of these companies long-term.   Make no mistake, the share price will fall if $50

[dllscwbysfn]

Officially we will not know we are in a recession for at least 6 months. Next week the USA will announce a fairly healthy GDP number for Q1. Considering it takes 2Q of negative GDP to be in a recession we are looking at near the end of October before we would know.

[riski]

You are referencing the technical definition of a recession. That's a hindsight observation, and by the time it's declared, stock prices are often climbing and data is improgin. By the time it's declared, an economy has been in a recession for months. I'm talking about actual data showing decline in economic activity which is a real time indicator. Maybe that happens, maybe it

[dllscwbysfn]

Of course. So next week the data for GDP in the US will be quite strong, likely about 2.5. So are we in recession? Going into recession? I do not recall so much talk for so long about a recession. I am pretty sure a year ago we were talking about recession. Data, what data are we to trust??

[marketsense]

My guess is and we are all guessing,  is we will have a very short period of negative growth but so mild in depth that it will be hardly be noticed.   That means that stocks especially oils willl not sell off much because this recession has been to a great extent,  already been discounted or priced in. I'm more in riski's camp where those who are expecting a big selloff and