Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

5 quarters at low to mid 80s wti

[JohnnyDoe]

Well, if were going to generate 400M fcf at these prices, thats 2B in 5 quarters. Thats without a growing production profile. As Kelvin noted, 2000 a day on some new wells in the Eagle Ford is fantastic<br /> <br /> So, 5 quarters. Roughly 105M to pay the dividend over 5 quarters. That leaves give or take 900M for buybacks. That is a HUGE amount. It far exceeds the NCIB amount. There's going to be a major SIB coming. Geez, I can't think of the name of the company that holds shares as a result of the Ranger acquisition. The one with the 30,60,90 holds. Anyway, I suspect if they are going to sell more, they will be bought back using SIB. Looking at the November presentation, there is 834M shares out, and likely 900 M thrown at buybacks over 5 quarters. I think share float is likely looking at low 700M by the time they move to 75% shareholder returns. This is going to be a massive cash cow at low 80 oil, and OPEC looks set to defend low 80 oil.

[1234bmth]

BTE is not gonna generate $1.6B FCF per year at $84 oil because the capex for Q4 is estimated relatively low ($222), this is not the case for every Q look at Q3 capex is $409M, so if we take the average capex of Q3 and Q4 it will be $315M, therefore the average FCF would be $279M/Q, but Q4 production guidance is higher than Q4. In this case the average FCF at $84 oil woul be around $300M ($1.2B

[jdmecomber]

BTE is not gonna generate $1.6B FCF per year at $84 oil because the capex for Q4 is estimated relatively low ($222), this is not the case for every Q look at Q3 capex is $409M, so if we take the average capex of Q3 and Q4 it will be $315M, therefore the average FCF would be $279M/Q, but Q4 production guidance is higher than Q4. In this case the average FCF at $84 oil woul be around $300M ($1.2B