Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Insider Stock Buying Reaches CA$5.4m On Baytex Energy

[AvInvestor]

At $70 wti, this company will be making some serious $$$

[1234bmth]

based on 2024 budget plan at $70 WTI in 5 years BTE generates $2.9B of FCF and assuming no buyback, no dividend, no asset purchase and no asset disposition and all goes to debt and remains $400M cash, let's say another 5 years of $70 WTI BTE makes $3.5B assuming no interest expenses, so roughly $4B cash on hand in 10 years which is not even $5 per share and management report says 10 years

[HeavyBanana]

So with all your caveats as presented, at the end of it they hand investors a $5.00/share cash distribution ......... which is higher than today. I suppose if you want to present a fantastical bear case, that one is pretty positive, lol.

[1234bmth]

I don't provide anything, just read the report, my math is a rough calculations, there may be a difference of a few millions up or down. For your reference read 5 years outlook on page 2 of the report, don't get me wrong I am arguing  about constant 5 years $70 WTI exactly what the report says, if oil averages above or below $70 things will be different. And FYI I am long on BTE and

[HeavyBanana]

I fully understand what you wrote. I simply point out that it is a pretty positive outcome for a bear case as you presented and/or as the company offers range of scenario's over a 5 year period and then drawn out to 10 years by you.  Scenario's aren't facts .......... they are scenario's that may or may not end up being the fact over specific periods of time.  Obviously

[riski]

Come on. You know and we all know that you know that's not how to do a company valuation. In your world everything is out the window.  AAPL is horribly overvalued by your metrics. Should be a $15 stock.   Being disingenuous is a credibility killer.   

[1234bmth]

I didn't value BTE, it is the management evaluation of the BTE at $70 WTI, I didn't add any wrong number on my own. Further more we cannot compare AAPL to oil companies in the same way. My argument was based on someone's post that mentioned BTE is making serious FCF at $70 WTI, let's be honest $580M FCF annually with roughly 850M shares outstanding and $2.5B+ debt is a serious FCF?

[HeavyBanana]

You conjured up a scenario and stated it as fact ........... meaning you took some Baytex information stretched it out in a fantastical way and came up with a $5.00 cash distribution to investors upon roll up in 10 years. Kind of weird way of drawing a downside narrative but positive nontheless, lol.

[Moemoney42]

Don't forget FCF is AFTER servicing the debt and capex.. so regardless the debt will be dealt with at $70 and as far as I'm concerned forget about the damn share buybacks.. aside from the measly dividend put all the FCF on debt.. 1/2 billion on the debt will make this stock rally if its done every year.. IMO..

[Marty47]

Y'a i agree here my father always told me the best investment is pay your debt , 6% interest focusing on  lower the debt protect for further downturn then at 80$ + later buyback shares faster and last when shares lower pay a decent dividend ......debt is never good lol 

[1234bmth]

I hope you don't invest on any company based on what you think, you will lose all your money in no time. FCF is after capex, but before debt and dividend. If BTE makes $2.9B in 5 years at $70 WTI after debt payments, the SP would have been in the double digit by now.

[riski]

Check the post. I'm pretty sure he said debt servicing. I think you might be exposing yourself as the naive one.   

[1234bmth]

You are right riski I red fast the post first time, in fact he is in the same believe as I am, pay down the debt instead of buyback.

[Marty47]

I think one scenario is that the Saudi will be p....off at one point and will have no other choice to flood to bankrupt some producers and slap few countries , so we maybe 40$ oil for 1 year and after that some country will be  more receptive to opec + , after that the Saudi will cut and get back to 90 to 100$ and start all over again but with some countries eating in their hands . if so