Post by
mrmomo on Feb 23, 2024 10:04am
Baytex in a UNIQUE position......
Like VERY few Canadian operators are. The only other "Canadian" name in the same "advantageous" position like them, is Ovintiv. But for all intents & purposes, after Ovintiv rebranded & re-domiciled a few years back to fcous more on their US assets, they're basically an American company now with an American ceo, mgmt, s/h base, and totally concentrated to develope their assets rather than Canada.
So why is Baytex in an "unique" position? Because of their exposure to the Texas oil & their proximity to the Permian Basin......that's why. Those properties are such IN-DEMAND right now, that's it's REDiculous the premiums that are being payed to acquire those assets. So if i was in Baytex's shoes, i'd be looking for ways to capitalize.....financially.... on this current trend. And the way Baytex is positioned right now, that could be a BIG windfall for the company and it's shareholders. The only question remaining is IF mgmt is willing and smart/perceptive enough to take advantage of the situation, and do so. And this might imply putting completely into question their past objectives, & Canadian roots.
As it stands right now, Baytex is in an envious position being so close to the Permian with their Eagle Ford oil. Sure it's not EXACTLY in the very "lucrative" & diverse, multi-layered Permian basin, but as they say, it's close enough to warrant a second look. And trsut me folks, MANY people will be taking a second.....thorough.....look at outfits like Baytex. Because there so much at stake financially & otherwise. So i f we look at Baytex's operations, what can they posiible do to improve their situation & outlook for the company and it's holders?
Well, IF i was in their shoes, the first thing they HAVE TO DO, is take a HARD long look at their faltering Canadian operations, which has been a BIG detriment to the company and a heavy burden weighing the company down.....in soooo many ways. This is one of the main reasons the company is trading at such a huge discount compared to their US peers. And will continue to do so until this is dealth with & rectified.
So how does Baytex fix or at the very least improve this part of their operations? Easy. The easiest & quickest way would be to divest those properties ASAP and use the funds to lower their "substantial" debt load. But if the company & it's mgmt is conflicted in dumping their Canadian operations due to those emotional attachments/roots or maybe fearing blowback from certian investors or public, then maybe splitting the company in two divisions would be preferable to all concerned. All i know is that they have to SOMETHING in order to regain some of that luster & respect from investors that was lost over the years. And imho, this would be the low hanging fruit in the interim.
If they do this, i guarantee you that Batex's US division or spinoff will be valued VERY close to what most of their American peers are getting, and their s/h will be very happy & grateful. And i'm not btw, but i'm sure many here on this forum would be very appreciateitve i'm sure, especially considering the dismal perfomance of the company since the acquisition.
As for the Canadian assets, well those imo will continue to hobble along like a handicapped old man, in that very unwelcoming, unprofitable, & hostile environment they're operating in. UNTIL the company's mgmt decide which course of action is need to deal with them in the best way posssible for the company.........and for the benefit for them & their s/h as well.... of course. Do this and the company's automatically gets rerated, revalued overnight by 30% in the upside. And possible set them up for a possible suitor......MANY possible suitors to take a second,& thrid look at the company....
That's MrMoMo's two cents worth......
GLTA
Comment by
Eoj123 on Feb 23, 2024 11:07am
In the meantime, the TMX expansion will help, along with next year getting rid of PM Slapnuts hopefully
Comment by
dllscwbysfn on Feb 26, 2024 12:11pm
MR momo should be Mr NONO because the polls are clear that the libs and ndp get their butts kicked in the next election. He is right about conservatives not being as conservative as they once were. What he forgot to mention is that the libs are nearly an all out socialist party and are reaching towards being a communist party. Who would vote for that
Comment by
Marty47 on Feb 23, 2024 11:09am
it's all nice to sell canadiens operations but it will be expensive to buy back in USA , I would wait until both elections are over , once trudope gone , canadien oil will get a premium also tmx is also a positive for canadien assets .....
Comment by
robert41 on Feb 23, 2024 10:21pm
Marty ur barking up the wrong tree with Mr momo have look at his posting history absolutely crazy.. by the way I agree with you... Bte does have a few assets they could unload but the Clearwater is a gem maybe momo doesn't know about it. Tmx will improve wcs prices so dumping Canada makes no sense to me either.
Comment by
Stockhudson on Feb 24, 2024 12:41am
Totally agree No way!! to selling Cdn assets oil hovering around 75.00 is creating profits and not damaging the economy GLTA we carry on! the daytraders love BTE
Comment by
JohnnyDoe on Feb 25, 2024 7:50am
On the last call, which was November 2nd, Eric said 400 fcf on strip for the quarter. Then the price of oil plummeted. I think it will be closer to 300 fcf. I expect to see roughly 300 applied to the debt which is 50% of the 300 fcf plus the 153 from the asset sale. Guess we're going to find out quick. Fingers
Comment by
SmokeyOB on Feb 25, 2024 10:29am
Not real sure if they will want pay the interest rate differential that banks now charge to renegotiate term loans. It is more complex than paying a said amount of breakage fees than it was before.