Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

BTE Is CATCHING UP To ATH: WCS Is ALMOST USD 70/Bbl.

[ztransforms173]

- BTE has MORE HEAYY OIL PRODUCTION than ATH BITUMEN PRODUCTION

- I am PRETTY SURE that at a WCS of USD 70 per barrel, BTE HEAVY OIL has HIGHER OPERATING MARGINS that EAGLE FORD LIGHT SHALE OIL and the CANADA LIGHT OIL at a WTI of USD 83 per barrel

z173

[Maxmoe]

Easy there big fella. Don't forget bte also has almost double the enterprise value of Ath. There's about a $BILLION more in share value and over $2.5 BILLION more in net DEBT.  Both are good at $84 oil ! 

[dandu1924]

Was just a matter of time, because BTE has over 155,000 bbl/d  to compare ATH  with their 33,000 bbl/d. BUT  when BTE will have reduced their debt with better balance sheet,   BTE should  be around  $15-20, this is logical, don't you.

[ztransforms173]

- I am COMPARING apples to apples {heavy crude oil} - BTE "HEAVY OIL" BARRELS (3 sources) versus ATH SAGD BITUMEN BARRELS (2 sources) - it is NOT EVEN CLOSE z173

[Maxmoe]

Hang on to your hat! ! ! Take a trip to London. Check out BP. They did cash flow, not revenue, of nearly $10 BILLION. OMG, that was JUST in Q4 ! So $40 BILLION a YEAR? NOT EVEN CLOSE! Oh, and the stock price ??? OMG !!! It's just 495p. That's £4.95 per share. Or $6.21 per share. For $40 BILLION in CASH FLOW. And bte ?? $1.3 billion. NOT EVEN CLOSE! And guess what? At $85 oil, BP is

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree to all your points but  what do you think about FCF per share between the two ?                        As debt is repaid back with higher FCF per share for Baytex , the stock price should rise to reflect this  . What do you think ?

[Maxmoe]

True Dat, but ATH already has ZERO debt so 100% of that cash flow can go toward growth/buybacks/dividends. Too few investors and directors understand that a company doesn't need to use cash flow to pay interest on the debt, they also have to repay the principle, the nut.  Not just the juice. Trump still owes the whole 550 million, not just the $150 he must put up as the bond. Imagine if

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree  to your points , but isnt interest  tax deductible as a business expense and real value of debt falls  with higher inflation as assets get inflated  . I am not a smart accountant like you but just crunching numbers , the FCF per share increased 20% after the deal . Mr Market is always right ,so i cannot argue with you Max . To me the acquistion looks accretive , yes it

[red2000]

Hey Man ! You have an interesting LT view ! May I had this .... if WTI stay healthy over 80$ until the end of 2025 ! Maybe a good chance for Baytex to reach it's LT Debt Target of 1,5B$ before the end of 2025. With more boe/d over 170,000 in 2025. Better fracking wells in Eagle Ford.  Duvernay Pembina ramping UP  Less Capex per boe. Lower float probably between 650 to 700M Shares.

[Maxmoe]

All is possible. All the best.