Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Share buybacks June

[Frost19]

Another 6M+ shares repurchased in June and eliminated on June 28.

Baytex seems to be buying about 300k shares per day.

Q2 has ended with just over 800M total shares outstanding.

[dllscwbysfn]

If WTI stays at todays price for all of JUly they should be buying back at least double what they bought in June. 13M in buybacks for July. Will wait and see, q2 earnings now also about 1 month away. Its time for a surprise to the upside for a change!!

[Marty47]

Buying those shares under 6$ it's really a good deal for shareholders , they should buy as much they can under 6$ .... longer wti over 80$ closer we get to debt goal to increase shareholder returned .... 2025 Baytex will be different than today .

[Ztransformer]

We can all post our stock predictions ($6/$7/$8/$9.... by whatever timeframe) .. who knows what's gonna happen!  While I am loving cheap share buybacks, it's super duper crucial for Baytex Execs to show debt reduction too on their financials. MIGHT be nice to see 50% increase to dividend when Q2 results come out or in Q3.  $80/bbl+ average WTI price will be wonderful in second

[Frost19]

I agree that the low share price is hugely beneficial to all shareholders over the long term.  For the dividend, I would rather see it remain the same dollar amount, just spread over a smaller number of shares. For example, assuming Baytex reduces share count by 10% in a year, then increase div by 10%. I completely agree with net debt needing to be reduced. I think this will happen in

[JohnnyDoe]

Debt reduction of only 200M in 2024 is a disaster for the company. A huge disaster.  Currently, the company is directing 50% of fcf to shareholders. There's lots of cdn o&g  companies directing 75% or 100% of fcf to shareholders. It's why this stock is in the penalty box.  We need to pay off roughly 1B in debt to hit the 1.5B debt target to move to 75% fcf shareholder

[riski]

I think debt reduction of $350 million in 2024 is about what we should be expecting. 

[Ztransformer]

There is NO WAY on earth Baytex will achieve $1.5b debt target by 2025 unless WTI shoots to $95+ & remains there till 2025 end. At current strip pricing, $1.5B debt target to be achieved by late 2026 to early 2027 IMO, easy to do this napkin math.  With current WTI strip averaging $80s per bbl, Debt should reduce to $2.1 - 2.2 billion by end of 2024. Hopefully down to $1.7-1.8B by end of

[Marty47]

Selling for 500m of assets will help .... as I said before , at this level of wti their usa assets would bring a nice chunk or $$$ to move everything to Canada , I'm not Baytex management but if I would run the company I would get out of usa and focus in one area in Canada , same as crescent point .... I been successful but I never hold any debt , Baytex is too much in debt , if wti would fall

[Kelvin]

Big debt and net losses for years on end was the knock against Amazon and Besos if you remember from a decade and more ago. Yet the sp kept on rising, exploding upwards because top line revenue wss shooting up year after year.  Anyway a few months ago a poster (I forget who) said that he/she was going to give bte some time to figure out the Eagle Ford. The remark sounded sensible to me and

[1234bmth]

BTE overpaid to acquire Ranger Oil, the management and market know that now, no company will buy Ranger Oil assets at the price that BTE has paid for it. Selling those assets for a loss will crash the SP significantly, BTE now needs 2 important things to perform in best interest of shareholders. 1- management that put shareholders first and before their own interests and keep doing what they

[Marty47]

My assumption is that they would find another fish out there to buy those USA assets but not at a lost , must me other companies out there dumb enough to overpay ...don't tell me only Baytex can overpaid lol 

[Hellboy1]

Thats funny,Make it a package deal, management goes with usa assets. 

[1234bmth]

Why did BTE bought Ranger Oil and incurred all these acquisition costs and sell it back for a loss? BTE bought Ranger Oil at the time that WTI was $75 and estimated combined FCF was $1B annually at $75 WTI , now they estimate $700M at $77 WTI, so even a child knows that this is overpaid never mind the oil companies. This is very clear now.

[Ztransformer]

1234behemoth, before you post all kind of BS on this board, please provide proof/links/sources on BTE overpaying for Ranger acquisition prior to making TOIDI (spelt backwards) accusation. Otherwise, keep your mouth and tiny pipi shut! Thank you. 

[1234bmth]

First of all you should learn how to respect others and then post here, what proof do you need, SP was close to $6 right before acquisition and WTI was $75 now WTI is $83 and BTE is $4.80 and estimated FCF was $1B at $75 WTI now it is $700M at $77 WTI, if you don't see this this trend that's your problem and I repeat learn some respect it will help you.

[Ztransformer]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[1234bmth]

I am long on BTE since 2016 and will be here next year if I am a life, no one knows what will happen till next year, it could go to $15 or could drop to $2, that's not my point, my point is for you to be polite and respectful, give your ideas and points and not necessarily agree to others ideas, but respect others. I can't use bad words to disagree with others' point of view I respect

[Hellboy1]

Great for you buying bte when it was 43 cents but you must feel like an IDIOT nut selling for 9 dollors a share ,or  buying meg when it was 1.25.Thier management team said all money on debt till where in a good place,boy look where they are now ,Think shareholders care about a divy.

[Hellboy1]

good night z sleep well.

[JohnnyDoe]

Bte paid roughly 36.5k per flowing barrel for Ranger  That metric has risen a lot in the past year, meaning the cost per flowing barrel has risen a lot. Also, the emerging success of refrac technology is going to have a big impact on reserves.  At this point, what bte paid for Ranger was a steal. Unfortunately it's left a lot of debt - relative to other Cdn oil plays at a time when

[1234bmth]

I agree up to a point about debt problem, but this is not the main problem, the main problem as I mentioned just in my previous post is FCF generation. As I mentioned with $80+ BTE will do good, but if oil drops back to low $70 then it is very risky for BTE, but I disagree about buying Ranger Oil was a steal trust me if that was a steal now the SP was $7.50 to $8

[Frost19]

Thanks for the reply! I try to be conservative in my estimates as I never know where strip will be tomorrow let alone in 3 months but I do agree that 200M would be low. I did say AT LEAST 200M net debt reduction, implying it should be higher.  They've front loaded a lot of capex and are killing it with the new well's they been drilling in 2024 so I can understand pushing the debt

[NobleHouse]

And even though oil is up and over $80 and fairly steady , those share buybacks haven't moved the needle at all and never do .As for buying those cheap shares , did it ever occur to the cheerleaders that they are cheap for a reason.DUH.

[Marty47]

800 millions shares its not 80 millions , it won't move the stock price for a while , never will maybe , it all depend how fast the debt get down and of course if Baytex doesn't  buy more companies down the road , we don't know the futur for sure , but for now if oil stay up at least they have the funds to buybacks some shares , the stock price may improved down the road due to a

[jleer42]

It is 50% of Free Cash Flow to debt and 50% to dividends/buybacks. Once total debt gets below $1.5b it will switch to 25% debt and 75% dividends/buybacks. Financial statements suggest the debt target gets hit Q1 2025, so not this year. For the time being BTE is still in the dog house over the Ranger deal, at some point assuming no new aquistions that should change and the SP will lift. Whenever

[Antonyius]

Considering they're only projecting to be somewhere around 2.1 billion after q4, I don't think they're gonna hit their debt target in q1 or 2025. Maybe you're thinking q1 2026?

[Hellboy1]

They got to much debt right now,No one knows the future is right.Drop the divy waste of money,Pay 80 to 90 pecent of money on debt,save 10 to 20 for buy backs from oct to feb best bang for buck.When you get debt down .People will feel better about the stock instead of having thier finger on the sell button.A stock is valuated by Debt,Economy News.Right now we got nothing going for us just look at

[JohnnyDoe]

The debt target will not be hit in Q1 2025. I've not seen anything that suggests that. I think we're looking at mid 2026 at current prices