Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Brian Ector: Q3 E&D guidance.

[HeavyBanana]

Asked a straight forward question and got a straight forward answer.

"Hi Brian

 

We are now about half way through Q3 and in your response to my earlier enquiry about E&D expenditures for Q2 you had conveyed projections that were quite accurate to what was reported in the financials release and in the same response you had projected about $490,000,000 to be spent in Q3/Q4.

 

Being that Q3 has booked the half way point for the quarter are you able to provide some guidance on where expenditures will land for Q3 relative to that near $500 million that was to be spent in H2?

 

Are we looking at $300,000,000 for Q3 and $200,000,000 for Q4 or do you see a more evenly split spend between the two quarters?

 

 Thanks for any guidance you can offer,

xxxxxxxxx"

"Hi xxxxxxxx, analyst consensus has full-year capex at $1.279 billion (our full-year guidance range is $1.2 to $1.3 billion). At this time, we expect third quarter capex to be pretty consistent with Q2, in the range of $340 to $350 million with fourth quarter capex of $165 to $175 million. The drilling and completions program is always being tweaked so this is subject to change as the balance of the year unfolds.     

 

Regards,

Brian"

[HeavyBanana]

Based on Brians guidance, I expect the balance of Q3 to trade in the same relative range as Q2 and the stock to start moving up big time through Q4 with next to zero tax loss head wind to contend with and bonanza grade fcf to be booked in that quarter. Will contently take my next $5,000 divvy deposit in wait of that stock price kick off and let the cry babies cry about E&D expenditures for Q3

[robert41]

Thx for the posting HB much appreciated 

[kegman]

Ditto.  The good thing this month is that with oil whipsawing and crashing again....our bottom was much higher.  Hopefully the top will be too.  Only issue with Q4 capex being lower...historically the price of oil is lower early to mid winter as well.  I am hoping for a Sept. spike.  Maybe sooner?  

[HeavyBanana]

Kegman, we will see the majority of fcf booked in Q4. Any way you cut it, the stock is going to fly when those numbers come out and the lead up is going to be very strong too. If one is inclined to jump out I would think the Q4 release will provide a very elevated stock price to do so. Higher than $7 CAD for sure, might even get into the $8's.

[dllscwbysfn]

So maybe no suprise for q3 earnings, the numbers will suck. You would think with all of this front loading of E and D that production would be way up, but yet its pretty flat.So you actually think that when Q4  results come out in LATE FEB next year that the sp will be in the 7 to 8 dollar range. You have been around long enough to know that they always disappoint on earnings day and it is

[JohnnyDoe]

is there anywhere that the company has publicly said that they see FCF tiled towards Q4?  this is what they said less than a month ago and they definitly were not flagging FCF tilted to Q4.  We expect to generate approximately $700 million of free cash flow(2)(4) in 2024, weighted 75% to H2/2024. 

[dllscwbysfn]

Every Q they come out with a plan and a month later they kinda let things slip out about the new plan, quite often in those monthly reports. They are basicly misleading investors as things like E and D must be planned well in advance. Very frustrating..

[dandu1924]

BTE management is acting almost like a penny stock management did, I mean the penny stock are still penny stock because the management are WEIRD, I mean, they are changing  their plan all the time ex: now focusing on the buyback,  and before that they were focusing reducing the debt 50% and 50% buyback and dividend, from de FCF. And in fews weeks they will say probably an another thing

[Marty47]

Ninecumpoop you do sound like a penny stocks lol 

[HeavyBanana]

As an investor, it is my due diligence that guides me to sticking with it or bailing. I ask simple and direct questions and guage whether the two mesh favourably for a good outcome to remaining steadfast in the investment in the first place. Brian Ector has been on the money with me throughout our dialogues and regardless of retail expectations (myself), if Brian has been true to the reality

[robert41]

I like your numbers but would be happy with a new 52 week high which is possible if oil doesn't slide gets closer to $80...baby steps.