Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

International ETFs and Mutual Funds abandoning Canadian oil

[JohnnyDoe]

This article is saying that international investments in CDN oil equities is way down. To me, stock prices are undervalued across the patch. Maybe Trudeau's imminent removal from the scene can spark a rally

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/alberta-oilsands-becoming-more-canadian

[Kelvin]

Yeah, I've been using my rudimentary skills in linear algebra trying to identify and quantify the various input vectors or factors that affect a cimpany's share price. I'm starting to notice a correlation between US treasury yields which are going up and share prices.  It makes sense that as treasury yields go up, then so will interest rates and those companies exposed to

[liljohnnyjoke]

I thought that due to the middle east situation that there had been recent uptick in buying Canadian oil stocks by foreign funds to the tune of $5B, but mainly only into CNQ/SU/CVE.

[Kelvin]

Yeah when you map (project) the macro factors (oil price, interest rates, inflation, treasury yields, geopolitical risk premiums etc) onto the micro company levels (breakeven costs, netbacks, debt structure and levels, debt to equity, fcf yield, net income, etc) then you quickly realize that different companies perform better than others in a given set of macro  conditions because they are

[Realdude]

Wow Kevin. You don't need all that math mumbo jumbo my friend. Oil price prediction is simple. The Saudis have been saying this the last 7 years or so. The USA is producing way tooooo much. Period. 

[Frank007]

The U S has just put a bigger longer drinking straw in the Permian and Eaglford ....the Saudis are not stupid ...they and I know the U S is on a hamster wheel ...just a matter of time before the milk shake is gone ..lol ..

[Kelvin]

Frank, Saudi is worse off. Their "straw" is sucking up mostly water in their once dominant Ghawar field. Once a virgin field where formation pressure alone drove up oil without the need for pump jacks, downhole pumps when formation pressure gets depleted. Secondary production is when you need pump jacks/downhole pumps to bring up oil for lack of formation pressure cause of depletion 

[Swackaboozy]

Not to mention the rediculous water cut of the permian with injection wells causing earthquakes now.

[Kelvin]

Lol, " math mumbo jumbo". Yes I do need it. Serving me well. In fact, everybody is using some sort of math mumbo jumbo or they wouldn't be buying shares. They're projecting future sp based on given knowns and trends. Otherwise wtf they doin? Randomly throwing their money at the market hoping for a favourable outcone? Nope. Peoole using math. Some peiple can do the marh better