Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

OPEC+ Extends Voluntary Production Adjustments

[uwebb429]

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7409.htm

[HeavyBanana]

This OPEC extension to the end of Q4 should lock in the  guidance for FCF in Q4 which means buybacks will continue providing some support over the next 2 months. Middle East fireworks will ignite the stock upward and that should make Q4 guidance ultra conservative. Pretty nice setup in front of us.

[ManitobaCanuck]

The cheap buybacks are a blessing , Last year they bought back 40mil shares . This year they are already at 45 mil shares bought back till Oct 31 2024 . Another 10-20 mil shares can be bought back easily with FCF at 70 WTI . Thats like a 50% jump in buybacks from 2023 to 2024 , EPS and FCF per share increases by 5-7% per year with these buybacks , not bad. YE 2027 I see double digits if Oil holds.

[HeavyBanana]

I think they have bought back about 20 million shares sine the NCIB renewal beginning in July with an allowance to buy in aggregate 70 million shares to the end of July 25. Can see them being able to fulfill the entire NCIB this time around at the clip they are going and if they do take out close to 20 million more by the end of Q4 it's pretty much inevitable that they complete the entire 70

[Marty47]

This is not small change 70millions , I remeber many posters complain about the buyback bla bla bla and I  always said it's the best  strategies , a lot mention to pay down the debt and stop the buybacks , now it's even better the shares at 4$ and the interest rate going down , between 4$and 5$ per share and wti at 70$ plus think in 2 years when the shares count will be lower ...

[ManitobaCanuck]

I might be a lil wary of that statment . q1 is usually capex heavy so not much or nil  buybacks , q2 is when buybacks just start and q3/q4 is when they take off buybacks. So by July 2025 , I dont think they will purchase the full 70mil this time around if Oil sticks between 70-80 ,60 mil shares buyback  max . 90-100$ oil is another story though , lol They generate 1-1.2 bil FCF  at

[HeavyBanana]

Q2 had E&D of about $340 million and they bought back and cancelled about 17 million shares in aggregated. We are witnessing what H2 is delivering in real time. Maybe overly optimistic to think the 70 million share NCIB will be executed in full but we need to see how they guide next year E&D to really get a feel for the potential for the NCIB to be executed in full and we get that

[ManitobaCanuck]

Agree , just need to sit tight and watch the FCF flow . Everyday above $70 oil is good . Debt will be down by 300mil in 2024YE, so overall we will reduce interest payments by 25mil which adds 3 cents per year to FCF  . Slow n steady we will grind upwards , 

[AvInvestor]

Manitoba, I'm hopeful that WTI will stay above $70, but you never know. The company is still in a vulnerable but not existential position. They should consider liquidating existing non core assets at a fair price to greatly reduce debt further.  Anything can happen in the next few years, why risk it?