Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Q3 disclosure guided approx. $570 million fcf for 2024

[HeavyBanana]

I did a crude calculation based on buyback dollar figures reported for Q4 and added in the rough divvy amount  and multiplied by 2 to get fcf projection for Q4 of about $143 million which gives FY24 $543 million fcf.

So it's possible they come under what they guided in the Q3 disclosure which they based on forward strip for the balance of the year at that time.

Or ...... they didn't buy back as heavily as 50% fcf to buybacks and divvy dictate and ended up throwing more against debt repayment to the tune of $30 million extra making debt repayment of approx. $100 million and in addition to that applying another $42 million from the thermal asset sale against debt for an aggregate of about $142 million going to pay down debt in Q4.

Going to be very interesting to see how Q4 numbers play out in relation to what they guided in Q3 disclosure and what the numbers we already have in front of us tell us.

Full disclosure, I ain't no math wizard Hoss, lol.

[kegman]

I think the price of WTI will outweigh any Q4 numbers unless they are better than expected and then it is another catalyst in SP.  Selling the asset is not based on gross numbers, FCF only needs to be used.  $51 Million is gross and cost has to be factored in.  The retail that want debt reduction cannot have it both ways.  I am sure it will help offset the Q1 cost demands as

[dllscwbysfn]

I think your numbers are pretty close.Looks to me that they spent about 42m buyback shares not counting what they bought for extra shares over the last 6 trading days of the year. I think this extra 10M might have come from the sale of the asset. So say 42m buybacks and 18m divy equals 60m times 2 equals 120M FCF. If I add that extra 10M it becomes 140fcf. My other concern is that in the past they