Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

There's 46.08 million shares today.

[dosperros]

I chased it down in SEDI.  It was 338,400 at between $1.81 and $1.90, all after Match 8 2021. This is on top of the Q4 numbers which were not transacted in 2020 so the 47.0M count is 46.08 today.


In other news, I hadn't realized Dave Roberts was on the case.  He's a very sharp guy.  Anyway, he picked up an extra 50.000 shares  in late March at $1.75, bringing his total to 495,027 shares.  It's nearing the breakpoint separating the smart money from the followers, so I could see some other larger positions come to be.  The writing is on the wall and has been for 6 months time, but few have seen it until now.


I'm no expert but I've read the block purchase exemption, and it's what you'd expect -- blocks are no free trip to Sizzler for all-you-can-eat shrimp.  

https://apps.tmx.com/en/pdf/notices/2012-030.pdf

Anyway, given all this, they're going to cap out near term.  There's roughly 1.98M shares left to take $3.5M to do it, until the Oct. 1 2021 period kicks in and they have another $5M until close of NCIB on Nov 30, 2021.


I'd expect between $3.00 and $3.50 for average cost until then given blocks have restrictions, so that gets another 1.2M or so cancelled.  Form there, the last 800k for the fall are likely $5 or $6 (or much more) and will get cancelled within the scope of the new $5M.


So 44M going into 2022 but likely less and the SIB will be popular (and expensive).  The dumb money is the new money, where the fatigue and exhaustion with this have set in.  The guys like Ken and Don who are old but have been getting kicked around by this for a decade plus could likely tender theirs in a SIB but there is certainly no incentive to undershoot.  It'll be thin and pricy, but will be accretive.  


When this is well past $2 funds ay weigh in, and that'll concentrate ownership somewhat more.  I expect if/when Ken gets around to his ESG thing that'll help drive ownership at that level too.  On that front, Dave Roberts is big on bioenergy and has a lot of PDF'd presentations online worth checking out from his CIBC banker days.  Hopefully he can help position it.

[StefanSalvatore]

There are a few errors with your post. I believe there is 46,114,600 shares outstanding today because it is noted in the annual financial report that there were 46,453,000 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2020. I'm under the impression that the 584,400 shares bought in December were factored into that report since the last purchase was made on the 31st of December. Fast forward to today