Canfor Corp T.CFP

Lumber prices keep climbing as industry looks to 2021

[lifeisgood1010]

December 9, 2020
By Madison's Lumber Reporter

Music to my ears but then again i'm not surprised since all
what the US home builders are telling there investors that 2021
will be a record year.

At a time of year when housing construction across North America is usually slowing down to very limited activity, and thus softwood lumber prices are usually quite soft, there has been a resurgence of strong demand for solid wood products in the past couple of weeks. Prices of dimension lumber commodities have responded upward accordingly.

Underpinning the hot lumber sales and rising prices is continued extremely rosy U.S. home sales and house price data. Lumber manufacturers in Canada and the U.S. are experiencing such strong demand that sawmill order files are pushing out into the start of next year. Forest industry veterans and home builders with 40 years experience alike have never seen this situation toward year-end. All agree, however, that home sales, house prices, and home building will not reverse direction any time soon. Madison’s expects a hot U.S. housing market to last at least to the end of 2021.
 

Western S-P-F purveyors in the United States were chuffed with a strong week to start December. Buyers were frequently in the mix to shore up their empty inventories thus sawmills pushed their order files into late-December or early-January 2021. Prices continued to climb and buyers had no choice but to participate, as downstream consumption was uncharacteristically robust considering the time of year. Players use American Thanksgiving as an important litmus test for the market. The result this year appeared to be more vigorous demand than many had expected.

Canadian producers of Western S-P-F lumber reported another good week as prices on every dimension item climbed yet again. Relentless demand persisted as Canuck sawmills sold out so quickly each morning that the U.S. cash market didn’t see a stick of bread and butter lumber items on offer. Resultant order files on all items were into the first week of January 2021.

Rising again at a time of year when prices are usually soft, for the week ending Dec. 4, 2020 the price of benchmark softwood lumber commodity item Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr was up another +$32, or +5%, over the previous week to U.S. $652 mfbm. Last week’s price is +$72, or +12%, more than it was one month ago. Compared to one year ago, this price is up +$258, or +65%.

Compared to the one-year rolling average price of U.S. $547 mfbm, last week Western S-P-F KD 2×4 #2&Btr was selling for +$105, or +19% more, and was up +$193, or +42%, compared to the two-year rolling average price of U.S. $459 mfbm.

[islandbrook]

lifeisgood1010. Too bad Canadiam Forest Product analysts do not read Madison Lumber Reporter. Concensus are still $2.15 for Canfor in 2021vesus $3.87 for 2020.

[lifeisgood1010]

Good evening Islandbrook, 1- My beleif is that many web site that  shows EPS are not up to date. 2- Most ANALysts are always lagging big time  to adjust their numbers. For me what counts, is the actual environment of the lumber industry. From all of my reading, we are only in the beginning of a super cycle The tail wind is on our side. Patience will pay of  big time