Chemtrade Logistics Income 6 50 Convertible Unsecured Subordinated Debentures T.CHE.DB.E

Scotia's Comment

[GregC24]

Latest Research (February 21, 2024):OUR TAKE: Mixed. Post-Q4, we see no reason to adjust our ‘24 outlook (-15% to -20% EBITDA growth y/y), as nothing has really changed, on balance. First, caustic soda remains oversupplied, with prices meaningfully lower q/q, and likely to reflect trough until demand growth exceeds chlorine, on the margin, or until higher electricity prices lead to European capacity curtailments (unlikely, as prices are falling). Second, sodium chlorate, which has enjoyed strong pricing, could be nearing the end of its run, as pulp mill closures in B.C. take a toll on domestic demand, while lower EU power prices flatten the cost curve. Third, while the water business performed well for CHE in Q4, we expect to see some margin compression q/q, largely a result of annual contract pricing resetting lower to reflect lower indexed input costs. Fourth, on growth/catalysts, the Casa Grande JV is on hold until returns improve (via CHIPS Act?). Also, it now looks like the start of the ultra-pure expansion in Cairo will be delayed and face higher capex. Therefore, we don’t see what controllable catalysts in ‘24 can propel the stock to outperform its peers. Fifth, leverage stands at 2.0x the $415M mid-point of CHE’s ‘24 guide.

[raybay_98]

'Also, it now looks like the start of the ultra-pure expansion in Cairo will be delayed and face higher capex'   Just outstanding performance wouldn't you say?