Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

Phase 1 Net Dept Target date prediction

[DowopDowop]

So I thought iit might be fun to take a stab at calculating when that 100mil Phase1 dept level would be reached to help anticpate when that beautiful Divi will roll.   

To get grounded company presentation page 3 estimates net debt at 177 mil as of Dec 31. 
Then using the presentation page 9 and $85 oil I see Free Cash Flow forcast of 219mil /12 months = 18.25 mil per month going to Net dept.   So by end of April (4 months x 18.25) should knock net down by 73 mil to leave 104 Mil Net Dept. 
And since Oil has been trading above $85 for XXXX days  I'm going to predict Phase1 Dept level will be reached by April 30.  And the Divi rolls at 6 cents a month.   
They report Q1 results May 12 so that is when they announce the Divi amount according to my crystal ball.
Who thinks a 0.72 cent annual divi will put at least a $7 handle on this by June ?

[JayBanks]

  I think your kinda low with that estimate (which isn't bad), that would still be better than 10.25% yeild... I think 4-5 cents would get us around the $7 area. 6 cents may get us around $8 or more. Your maths excite me for the outlook and that they were well laid out and easy to follow.

[Rational43]

That math lines up pretty well with my calculations, but at $90 WTI that would be a 84 cent annual dividend.   I think a 10% yield is about right (as the market will always be doubtful on oil prices), so that would be ~ $8.40 a share.   The Q1 earnings call should make this pretty real, unless they put out a Spring Corporate presentation and talk about it.

[antonaki1]

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[Kontrary]

Keep in mind that Q1 earnings don't come out until May.