Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

Post It Note Numbers

[Konaboy]

Jan average 84WTI
Feb average 93
Mar average 117 (10 days)

Revenue (USD) to date is already $127MM.  Take the exchange rate boost and apply to production/transport/spread/etc.

Bank debt reduction target $65MM, capex $85MM = $150MM to take off the top

At 120WTI we are 10 days away from the Phase 2 return to shareholder scenario -> accelerated by more than one quarter from February plan.

Assuming some slippage in price to 100 WTI, revenue 20KBPD * 100WTI * 30days = $60MM per month.

50% to debt means paid off in just over 3 months.  First three months dividend is 30MM/166MM shares = $0.18 per share.  After that, let's say 10% for growth, so div is 54/166 shares = $0.325 per share/month.

Need to digest this again in the morning, either I'm a few decimals off, or this is going to just go vertical.

Do I have this right?

And Eric cut his holdings?

[odinburnz]

Not sure if you have the figures right Konaboy but you have my vote!

[ROIcrusader]

As opposed to postulating, you might as well visit their presentation. All the information to answer your questions is here: https://cardinalenergy.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/February-2022-Corporate-Update.pdf Pg 2 details their cash flow and sensitivities to WTI and debt levels. Pg 14 specifically states what the dividend will be based on the price of oil in H2 2022 (0.07 @ $90 +/1 and

[Konaboy]

I was in and out about 3 months ago, but the recent spike caught my eye, and I took another look. Absolutely used the latest update deck, but things have significantly accelerated.  I see debt free by end of March. Was looking for a better use for some of my gassy producers, and it's all going here.

[Luckyguy777]

Those dividend numbers seem aggressive to me but if they occur I will be happy. I dont think there is any part of the market that is pricing in oil anywhere near current levels and I don't think CJ will price a dividend anywhere near $100 oil.  I would expect something more in the range of $70 oil (which is still good) and then they can increase it later in the year.  I also wouldn&