Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

1st and 2nd quarter WTI prices

[scienceguy36]

Using WTI future contracts for Dec (2021) Jan and Feb 2022 , the average price of WTI for the 1st quarter of 2022. (Jan, Feb and Mar) is $82.00.


I would anticipate WTI averaging much higher in the 2nd quarter as March future for April Contract is $108.50 and April price for May contract is averaging above $100.00 and will be starting June contract  in a few days

[CashFlowADay]

At 82 they make about $15m in excess FCF above capital/ARO but I suspect a lot of that was front loaded.   People need to drastically slow down expectations.  Q1 likely only had about 45M if that of debt paid off.  15M x 3 BUT its lower cause of the front load.  Might be $35m.  April another $20m. Then they are at $55m by reporting date.  By June dividend they

[odinburnz]

RbcCapital Market are anticipating .04 dividend.

[Luckyguy777]

I would be happy with .04 per month.  Pay down the debt faster and quicker to stage 3.  Also, maybe throw in some sharebacks if the price doesn't take off.

[TMIC1048]

  On November 4, 2021, CJ had put out their Winter Presentation: https://cardinalenergy.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/November-2021-Winter-Presentation.pdf Note Page 7 of 26. I'm happy to dial back my expectations and happy to wait while they pay off debt; everything they are doing now will only set us up better in the future but I would have to question management forecasting

[Rileym7833]

Thank you for finding the winter presentation because I knew I had seen it somewhere. I bet they go with $0.07/month because that's what they had said when oil was significantly cheaper last year. No reason to roll back what Page 7 says, dividend will be determined by oil price at time phase 2 is complete. I don't know why these guys keep citing Q1 oil price. If the dividend doesn't

[Luckyguy777]

.07 per month would be okay with me also.  That would give be about 28k per month of cash flow.  I can live on that for starters. I think we need to temper expectations for initial dividend though.  I bet they come out conservative on oil price expectation.  Maybe we get 3-4 cents with a double in the 4th quarter.

[Rileym7833]

I'm curious what they've used for a price in the past when making dividend decisions. Trailing, current, or futures prices would all tell a different story and that's where we seem to have a range of opinions. Does anyone know where to check?