Post by
Stavkot on May 09, 2022 10:39am
COGS and CAPEX way up
I'm not too optimistic that we'll be able to see the full free cash flow that was projected earlier this year. I'm not talking about CJ specifically but from personal experience it is getting very hard to get anything done on time and within initial budgets. Also labour, transport and energy costs have gone up big. I'm estimating Q1 below $60mm and debt at over $125mm. Still think that CJ and energy is the best place to invest extra money right now.
Comment by
masfortuna on May 09, 2022 10:46am
So you think they "missed" by 50%? With oil avg. higher than their model? And you add that you think it's ok? How did you come up with that 60 million? Transport costs in that area have gone up 5% (BIG by your wording). Not sure I agree with you on any level but it almost smells like a soft attempt at misleading the board...
Comment by
Rileym7833 on May 09, 2022 11:04am
I'm with you Mas, also keep in mind increased costs only weigh on new production, it's not like we have a crazy decline rate and a ton of new wells. Some of the lower estimates make me wonder.
Comment by
CashFlowADay on May 09, 2022 12:12pm
WTI sales pricing averaged closer to $80 in Q1, they said they were at $140m debt recently... People are out to lunch if they expect over 4 cent dividend initiated. Big fan of Cardinal but it will take 1-2 more quarters imo, Capex/ARO was reallly front loaded
Comment by
masfortuna on May 09, 2022 2:33pm
Again not sure where you got $80. The last 2 weeks we have seen oil companies report revenue. The standard avg is between $92-$94 depending on when there q ended.
Comment by
1rhapsodyoilfan on May 09, 2022 3:00pm
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