Post by
mickeymouse on Mar 19, 2023 3:02pm
oil price and over reaction?
Average WTi price in January was 78.12 - average WTI price in February was 76.83 - average oil price until March 13 was 76.17 - it is only last week where prices have dipped significantly.
Take the time to look at page 7 and 8 of the latest presentation if you are worried about a cut in the dividend - it very clearly states that at $80 oil FFO will be $270 million and capex/ARO/dvidend cost will be $235 million - so the projection was for a surplus of $35 million at $80 oil.
Thus far in the first quarter the oil price has been below $80 but if you look at the other sensitivities in their budget projections you will see that - the FX rate is based on CDN at .78 - right now it is a little over .73 so that is a significant mitigating factor - secondly the budget projected a WCS differential of $18 - the differential has been below that for a while now and historically has dropped in the summer months - once again a factor that supports the FFO - lastly they are projecting to spend $23 million on ARO obligations - this is $14 million more than they are mandated to spend so they can use those funds in another way if needed until the WTI price rebounds.
In early February BMO published a "break even" chart for the SMID E&P's - CJ had a break even price of $51 with no dividend and $65 with the current dividend - if you are questioning their committment to the dividend you should definitely contact the company - " we have a number of levers to use if the commodity price drops below $80 to maintain the dividend".
If the oil price were to stay low for several months you may see them reduce the dividend to 4 or 5 cents a month but if you think oil prices are going to do that why are you on this board supposedly holding shares in an E&P.
Lastly for one poster who admits to selling most of their shares and then makes claims as to how much the company is "loosing every month" and is suggesting the share price will drop to 3 or 4 your motives are very clear - a lower entry point is never going to be achieved by being a retail shareholder "expert" on a bullboard - you are wasting your time and most people are smart enough to see through your duplicity.
Comment by
Kadiddelhopper on Mar 19, 2023 3:22pm
Just to add, I have always wondered how these so-called " expert " shareholders have never been able to learn the difference between losing, and loosing. I end with laughter when I see that word " loosing "...their lack of credibility is forever denied.
Comment by
Kadiddelhopper on Mar 19, 2023 7:48pm
Correction on that last line.. " their lack of credibility is forever entrenched ". !
Comment by
sclarda on Mar 20, 2023 2:07am
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Comment by
sclarda on Mar 20, 2023 2:04am
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