Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

market movement

[VeritasVern]

Oil is down about 2.5% today on essentially little negative news while all the middle east issues are still full-on and Libya's is shutting down production. So why the large decline besides Goldman putting out a forecast intented to profit on the decline. I suspect they reason is two fold. Firstly the funds are making money today on the downside while keeping oil in the trading range of $75-80 and secondly they are positioning themselves for the run-up tomorrow if API oil inventory is bullish. We will find out later today wha API reports.

[Quintessential1]

API is just a little bullish reporting .400 more bbls down than forecast but that doesn't mean the EIA won't show a big surprise draw.  The two reports haven't been in synch lately. Latest Release Aug 27, 2024 Actual -3.400M Forecast -3.000M Previous 0.347M GLTY and all

[lnggasfor202324]

.4 million barrels.

[Quintessential1]

Yup left off an M there so .400M bbls. Unfortunately the EIA report comes in at -0.800 M bbls which is well above the expected draw. Fortunately, oil pricing seems disconnected from these reports lately so maybe it won't affect them. At some point the the Libyan oil fields shutdown has to affect global demand a little and it could be up to as much a 1.2 M bbls/d. https://oilprice.com

[VeritasVern]

Quinte, if fundamentals don't have an affect on market prices then there is something seriously wrong. Manipulation wouldn't be too harsh of a description. It is an election year and wonder if that has anything to do with it.

[Quintessential1]

VV, US inventories aren't the only fundamentals that affect the global oil prices.   It would seem Chinese demand is playing a larger role as they are the worlds largest importer. I only see SPR buys and refilling.  Unless you think the Chinese are trying to influence the election by tanking their own economy and oil prices with it?   GLTY and all 

[VeritasVern]

Chinese demand is old news already, rehashed and recycled over and over again to lower prices when needed. Oddly besides that there is little other news pressuring prices. Demand in India is strong and also good in the US. Global demand is still - increasing y/y although slightly reduced but still increasing. Libya production is halting and that is having little effect is seems while the middle

[Quintessential1]

Yeah, I discussed all those other things and it is possible that shut in Libyan oil is now buoying the global oil price with reduced supply.   If you want to talk about old news the middle east proxy war between non-oil producing nations is a good start.  If other actual oil producing nations actually get involved (and Libya shutting in their oil is one indication) it could become

[VeritasVern]

I am fully invested into CJ specifically for the reasons you listed so I'm not on here to knock this stock and am holding.  Back to the markets though, funny how you seem to accept and drink the spiked Koolaid handed to you at every turn. Some of those working at the executive level in the oil space have said to me - of coarse oil markets are manipulated. So is currency exchange and

[Quintessential1]

Nobody doubts your investment in and loyalty to CJ.  At least, I don't.  GLTY and all CJ investors. That does not mean however that I believe your anecdotal "oil executive" "evidence" .  LOL Or theirs. Especially if they said: "of coarse". FYI the "kool-aid"  drinkers were that part of the conspiracy believing minority that bought

[VeritasVern]

Quinte, nice one but there are few conspiracy theories, mostly different perspecives and speculations; 1) selling off 180 m/b of oil from the SPR certainly was political to a great extent as high gas prices and inflation is not good politics and can get you voted out as Jimmy Carter can tell you. Yes there was some disagreement as to how much an impact supplying about 1.5 m/b per day would have

[Quintessential1]

Sure VV but, "there are few conspiracy theories, mostly different perspecives" You're the one that trotted out the koolaid drinking anaology.  I just pointed out that if anyone was drinking the koolaid it it might be this guy: "They have publically stated they will be replenishing the reseve at $80 wti or lower and magically that seems to be occuring," Use "

[Playacar]

Where did you get that figure of chinas imports being down 45 percent.   That can't be right. 

[Quintessential1]

Good question.  Looking back for it the closest I could come was this like I explored.  China's oil products imports slumped 33.2% from May to a 20-month low of 2.97 million mt in June https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/071224-china-data-june-oil-products-imports-slump-to-20-month-low-of-3-mil-mt Could have been an error

[Quintessential1]

Found it.   "June imports totalled 1.49 million metric tons, 31% lower than May and 45% down from a year earlier, according to General Administration of Customs data." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-first-half-2024-fuel-oil-imports-slide-11-yy-2024-07-20/#:~:text=June%20imports%20totalled%201.49%20million,and%20dampened%20appetite%20for%20feedstocks. GLTA

[VeritasVern]

Clearly one month of data does not represent the total annual demand. My understanding is oil is somewhat inelastic so expect some larger purchases in the next several months.  The early Aug short-term energy outlook from the EIA says this: We forecast that global consumption of liquid fuels will increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2024 and 1.6 million b/d in 2025; the latter is 0.2

[Quintessential1]

You're right! One month doesn't represent a year's demand but don't forget that these are futures traders and they can take one month and project it for a year or for the next year especially if the economic numbers coming out of China don't look like they are recovering. I also noted that that report was showing Imported fuel oil but petroleum products are petroleum products

[VeritasVern]

Chinese GDP rose +4.7% but lower than the 5% target according to the EIA... I think the import figures are under reporting Russian total imports as you noted. Part of that reason may be because they are likely attempting to show partial compliance with Western Sanctions. China is notoriously guarded with releasing data, for their advantage. Traders are taking this and driving the price of oil

[Quintessential1]

So the market is swaying the market?  Isn't that how it works? I also think that Russia is supplying the Chinese oil under the table but you can only work with what you can prove. GLTA

[VeritasVern]

Lets work with what we've been given. So Chinese GDP increases by +4.5% but oil demand declines by 45%. Kind of goes against what the market demand would suggest. In the days of Covid lockdowns, oil demand dropped what - 20% or so.... Sure, makes absolutely zero sense and less probability.The big hedge funds control the narrative and direction of oil.  Looks more convincing by the day to