Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

Dividend

[DivChase]

What price WTI does CJ need to average to maintain the dividend as is??

[JayBanks]

  I believe it's announced as 'sub $55' where they run into danger, but that's also with stripped down capex as a lever... it will move towards 50 when SAGD comes online, but there is a bottom limit with efficiency that they can push that safety line, and they are pretty close to it... And if things go well that general capex is reduced due to less expenses maintaining a

[Luckyguy777]

Are they on budget this year (or close)?  If so, then don't worry about the dividend.  I am pretty confident they wouldnt enter the year with a plan they would need to cut the dividend if they meet budget.  

[JayBanks]

  They added some unexpected lands and brought forward a few things I think, but we were also +80 early in the year... so I think there was higher expenses but also higher than forecasted income too. We are closer to a dividend raise, than a cut, once the capex comes off the current extra project and before the next one starts, we will likely be pounding the debt till it bleeds at which

[Quintessential1]

WTI pricing averaged $81 in Q2 and CJ payed down 17% of net debt. In Q3 WTI is averaging $79 without September numbers in yet. If we allow a low $70 average for September Q3E WTI looks like a $76 average. Will a 6% decrease in Q3 commodity pricing erase the gains that helped pay down the 17% of net debt in Q2?  I doubt it.  Especially since production should have a slight increase

[dorite]

When Trump wins in Nov. and starts another drill Baby DRILL, will the price of oil drop even further? putting in to question the validity of a 10% payout.. just asking.

[Quintessential1]

If trump wins in November he will definately have a drill baby drill policy.  He has said so. Whether or not US producers suffering from already low commodity pricing follow his lead is debatable Well,  actually it's not.  Total rig counts are down in the US YTD by 17%.  Why?  Because they're not making money.  Greed trumps politics everytime.  It even

[dorite]

RE POLLS ----I BELIVE ANY POLL THAT SAYS HARRIS IS LEADING IS LYING SO THAT IT SEEMS SHE IS CLOSE SO THAT A CHEAT WILL BE MORE BELIEVEABLE.IMO.

[Quintessential1]

LOL.  An election win denier.  Go figure.  I bet you believe the Biden Administration is lowering global oil prices by filling the SPR for votes too! I can't tell is oil up or down today?  ;-) Nice caps.  Stomp your feet too you know I can't hear you right? Well at least CJ seems to like the rate cut.   GLTY and all

[VeritasVern]

The 1/2 rate cut was yesterday, already factored into the market and the price of oil at the end of day declined. If the int cut was to be so pivital to rising prices, then we would have seen a 2% rise in prices by end of day yesterday and likely up significantly today too. But I see oil is only up only $0.78 cents right now which when added to the decline yesterday is essentially flat... LOL In

[Quintessential1]

The 1/2 point rate cut yesterday came after the oil trading board closed at 2pm but you justify your conspiracy position  anyway you want..  You were going to anyway.     Oil up is oil up.  Go figure!  LOL GLTA ;-)

[VeritasVern]

Gee I think you are right! There is nothing but news after news how the, - already factored in 1/2 point rate cut - is driving oil prices higher. Sadly the 1/2 cut is factored in and done, and the market has moved on beyond that, no consiracy position just reality, but we all know you were "hanging your hat on the cut" Lol ;-) ..Yawn...Oil is moving based on developing dynamics such

[Quintessential1]

Seemed like a pretty good place to hang a hat.  News after news... "WTI crude oil futures gained some traction to trade above $71.3 per barrel on Thursday, extending the rebound from the 15-month low of $65 touched on September 10th amid expectations of stronger global energy demand and higher risk premiums from rising tensions in the Middle East. The Fed delivered an aggressive 50bps

[VeritasVern]

You seem so desperate! So you are saying the 1/2 rate cut wasn't already factored into oil prices??? That is also saying that traders would drive record short positions in oil when they knew, like everyone, that their was a very high probability that the Fed was cutting 1/2 point and essentially 100% chance of a 1/4 point cut but allow themselve to be exposed??? They are that stupid are they?&

[Quintessential1]

LOL...I understand that oil is up and has been since the cut.  LOL I guess you can can't accept facts when they are laid at your feet.   But I knew that.  That's how filling the SPR makes oil prices go down in your mind.  Oil is still up BTW GLTA ;-) 

[VeritasVern]

Wow with logic like that you should be consulting the shorters to unwind their positions before "a well understood 1/2% cut was comming" and how they could have reduce thier losses!!!

[VeritasVern]

You didn't answer the question copied - why a record amount of short positions, the most ever by far, were allowing themselves to be exposed to a 1/2 point rate cut when they knew it was coming...Perhaps because you don't know or know I am correct.

[Quintessential1]

LOL.  I know that you are almost certainly also a bet whelcher.  I haven't see this much tap dancing since Shirly Temple was still alive. (212) ••• Comment by VeritasVern on Sep 19, 2024 11:32am The 1/2 rate cut was yesterday, already factored into the market and the price of oil at the end of day declined. If the int cut was to be so

[Quintessential1]

Hey welcher at least your buddy utterlyfried had the good graces not to show his face and try to claim victory in the face of such ignominious defeat.   Stop obfuscating with irrelevant target allocations and timelines that no one has sanctioned. LOL   " it should have gone up more after all they had a whole almost 2 hours to trade"  ROFL Meh, like I said CJ

[Quintessential1]

LOL   " it should have gone up more after all they had a whole almost 2 hours to trade"  ROFL I already posted that it closed 2 hours later.  ;-)  Not my fault if you can't read  Oil prices rise 2% after US rate cut By Shariq Khan September 19, 20242:32 PM EDTUpdated 2 hours ago Argue with Reuters!

[VeritasVern]

The announcement was at 2pm Eastern 1PM Central therefore the market did not close before the announcement as I watched it rise then fall that day, closing negative.  He's a copy/paste a story of the price action during the day, specifically shortly after the announcement. In fact it continued to decline after the news  and dropped as low as $69.82 at  4:55 CDT..."But the

[Quintessential1]

Posted the correction long before you picked up on it (or more likely someone clued you in).  LOL Like I said argue with Reuters. Oil prices rise 2% after US rate cut By Shariq Khan September 19, 20242:32 PM EDTUpdated 2 hours ago Argue with Reuters! LOL GLTA

[VeritasVern]

What made you think the market was closed??You didn't correct it until I questioned it but good try in deflecting once again. I was watching it decline in real time the day of and "oil declined on the day of the rate cut", showing it was already factored in. So demand is now back into market sentiment, and prices are under pressure, but you "hung your hat" on the "

[Quintessential1]

LOL. I posted the correction long before you questioned it.  You can't fake the time of the posts. ;-) Hey if you don't know just blame it on Biden.  It sure doesn't stop you from speaking.  LOL GLTA

[VeritasVern]

Sure keep deflecting, all it shows is your ignorance of markets. But don't be silly we can't blame Biden for anything as it would be insensitive to do that to someone that is clearly demented, has been since 2020 at least.... The one that was the essentially the only nominee with 95% of votes to be the presidential candidate in the election, until his cognitive decline became apparent to

[Quintessential1]

Wow.  You know this rabbit hole rhetoric doesn't give your arguments any kind of support. Biden's AWOL huh?   Oh Biden where are you?   LOL   Found him! Apparently he is doing his job in DC today. President Biden

[VeritasVern]

Sure he is in/out of the office but mostly out, wandering aimlessly out on the beach somewhere. LOL We are in agreement then that the leader of the free world has serious cognitive decline and that they were prepared to put him in office for another 4 years. WOW* That's not rhetoric but pure facts.

[Quintessential1]

LOL  .  Do you just hear agreements in your head?  Are  they the same voices that say filling the SPR makes oil prices go down and dems are doing it? Are they the same voices that said the 1/2 point FED rate reduction was priced in but wasn't responsible for the halt of the fall of the oil price at $65 and its subsequent rise to over $71 where it still enjoys the floor

[VeritasVern]

I never side with the political view of the SPR - I know how the in/out of it may affect markets depending on other factors that can also affect prices. Clearly you have an obsession with it though but choose to dismiss the fact they don't have the money to replace it and instead say absurd things like American's would be ok with that because they spent it on other things in the economony

[lnggasfor202324]

He is doing terrible for oil as well as Trudeau.  They charge us extra taxes on gas for climate change.  I'm not a beleiver on this only the  fools beleive it.

[lnggasfor202324]

I think oil trades on more then one place.  The reason why I say that is because it stops trading on BNN and on the Boe site it keeps trading and stops for a bit later in the day.

[VeritasVern]

The 1/2 point rate cut yesterday came after the oil trading board closed at 2pm but you justify your conspiracy position  anyway you want FYI market doesn't close at 2 pm Eatern Crude Oil Futures Overview - CME Group Trading Hours. CME Globex: Sunday - Friday 5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. CT with a 60 ... Trade around the clock: 24 hour-access means no waiting for the ETF 

[VeritasVern]

This is what you said about the oil market the day of the rate cut. But it close down the day of the announcement.... amateur! ROTFL The 1/2 point rate cut yesterday came after the oil trading board closed at 2pm but you justify your conspiracy position  anyway you want..  You were going to anyway.  

[DivChase]

I'm convinced.  I actually bought some yesterday at 6.38.  Quite a bit More today at 6.39.   Seems like that heavy oil opportunity could really change this company next year and the years that follow.  Who knows maybe CNRL will take it out at a premium. ??   I'll get paid to wait for a takeout. 

[Quintessential1]

Takeout,  lower cost production ramp up.  We get paid to wait either way.  ;-) GLTY and all 

[BigJake]

I would love to share your optimism,  Cnrl has taken out a number of companies, but I can't think of any at a premium. If CJ was the first that would be great.

[DivChase]

Wow 55$!  That's pretty darned good.  low debt ratio too.  Very high div.  Does anyone know why RBC shaved thier forecast on SP by a full dollar?   Seems like self serving bunk to me.   I was about to take a position in this stock when this RBC phoey happened.  

[JayBanks]

  I for one, never look at price targets from those analysts, and rarely their notes or justifications for them. They usually have a narrow focus and regurgitate basic things you already know in under 5 sentences. I'd rather listen to a portfolio manager or someone who writes essays on thier analysis, more in depth and interesting a view point, more aspects taken into consideration