Post by
the_Magus on Aug 07, 2006 12:39am
T/O Target CLG
CLG is among 37 juniors identified as t/o targets. From the list, it is in VERY good company (list is at end of article). Read and enjoy the ride!
tM
JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- A study by RBC Capital Markets has identified 37 North American “junior” gold stocks that may very well be targets of predatory activity given rising pressure on Tier I and Tier II gold diggers to find “replacement” ounces. Some of the “juniors” will not come cheap; Crystallex, which sits at the top of the market capitalization table, would cost more than $600m, excluding the takeover premium that its shareholders would inevitably demand.
RBCCM makes the point that while exploration spending has increased in recent years, “very few significant gold deposits have been discovered over the past five years”. Even then, a number of deposits “discovered” have long been known, but previously suffered from an adverse political or regulatory environment. Some still do; just ask the likes of Meridian or Moto Goldmines.
However, given the current era of rising gold prices and increasing cash reserves among established gold diggers, it is natural for investors to anticipate that North American Tier I producers (Newmont, Kinross Gold, Barrick and Goldcorp) and Tier II companies will continue to acquire development stage projects with defined gold resources in order to meet long-term growth objectives.
The interest would, of course, extend to the global Tier I gold producer group – which also includes the likes of AngloGold Ashanti (market value: $13bn) and Gold Fields ($10bn) and the global Tier II group. For investors starting to join the dots, companies classified in the North American Tier II gold producer group are listed as Eldorado Gold, IAMGOLD, Centerra Gold, Hecla Mining, Jaguar Mining, Bema Gold, Glamis Gold, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Yamana Resources, High River Gold Mines, Meridian Gold, and Cambior.
While the RBCCM study focuses on North American juniors, there could be far bigger action as well, such as last year’s acquisition by Barrick of Placer Dome (then with Tier I status). The deal pushed the new Barrick to No 1 in the global gold stakes. Today Barrick boasts a market value of $26,5bn, compared to the $23bn of its long-time adversary, Newmont.
The RBCCM study finds that North American Tier I gold producers currently trade at an adjusted market capitalization (AMC) of $150 and Tier II producers at $190 an ounce of gold, based on measured and indicated resources. To the extent that junior gold explorers trade at lower AMC per ounce multiples, RBCCM reasons that “it is often accretive for established gold producers to adopt a ‘growth by acquisition’ strategy”.
RBCCM finds that the average AMC for the 37 North American junior gold exploration and development companies examined computes at $95 an ounce. While the quality of each ounce of gold varies according to grade, depth, location, and so on, the numbers suggest that the juniors are generally priced for takeover activity. The study also shows that North America is highly favoured as a listing destination; among the different bourses, Toronto ranks as first choice.
The list of juniors identified in the RBCCM study suggests incredible energy on the part of those participating in the new “gold rush”, and a willingness to seek gold in every corner of the earth. In alphabetical order: Anatolia Minerals (Turkey); Axmin (Mali); Ballarat Goldfields Australia); Banro (DRC): Bendigo Mining (Australia); Comaplex Minerals (Nunavut); Crystallex (Venezuela); Cumberland Resources (Nunavut); Dynasty Metals (Ecuador); Etruscan Resources (West Africa); European Goldfields (Greece); European Minerals (Kazakhstan); Farallon Resources (Mexico); Gabriel Resources (Romania); Gold Reserve (Venezuela); Great Basin Gold (South Africa); Greystar Resources (Colombia); International Minerals (Ecuador); Kimber Resources (Mexico); Kirkland Lake Gold (Ontario); Lake Shore Gold (Ontario); Linear Gold (Mexico); Metallic Ventures (Nevada); Metallica Resources (Mexico, Chile, USA); Minefinders Corp (Mexico); Northern Mining Exploration (Tanzania, Eritrea); Miramar Mining (Nunavut); Moto Goldmines (DRC); Mundoro Mining (China); Nevsun Resources (Mali, Eritrea); Orezone Resources (West Africa); Osisko Exploration (Canada, Brazil); Seabridge Gold (Canada); Southwestern Resources (China, Peru); Stratagold Corp (Canada, Guyana); Viceroy Exploration (Argentina), and Western Goldfields (California).